Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Public forum for the discussion of strategy.
Post Reply
User avatar
lotsofphil
Leader of rum ham
Posts: 4075
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:56 pm

Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lotsofphil » Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:33 pm

A-Boo Peak: 3.8 turns @ +175% items, 5.66 turns @ +100% items (ignores potentially useful drops)
Known issues with this math: ignores other potentially useful drops (Whoompa, claybender, syringe)
Drop rates aren't spaded. So I'll assume 15% and 10% base.
edit: spaded by pewt, woo. I'll leave the numbers in here for posterity.
Assume +175% items and +100% items (see sonars).
Assume you will clear 90% of the zone with 3 clues.
You need to kill at least 4 ghosts.
To farm 2 clues will take...
4.8 = 2/.4125 @ 15/175
7.2 = 2/.275 @ 10/175
6.66 = 2/.3 @ 15/100
10 = 2/.2 @ 10/100
Sonar: 4.75 @ +175% items, 6.94 @ +100% items (ignores screambats)
Known issues with this math: it ignores screambats.
Guano Junction has 6 monsters. 5 drop sonar @ 10%, 1 @ 15%. So effective drop rate is 10.83333%.
+175% = 35% passives, 25% frosty halo, 20% phat, 15% KGE, 20% Kung Fu, 60% fairy (25 lb vanilla fairy)
Drop chance ~ 30%
Expected turns for sonar 1 = 3.33
Batrat Burrow, effective drop rate 15%.
+175%
Drop chance ~ 41.25%
Expected turns for sonar 2 = 2.42

In AoJ your drop rate is more like 100% (egg man and frosty halo. or egg man and KGE).
4.61 for the first, 3.33.
Then -1 to actually use the clover.
Ore: 4 turns per clover. -20% combats, +175% items, no semirare/YR. (ignores possibility of duplicate outfit pieces).
Known issues with this math: ignores duplicate outfit pieces
You need 3 clovers for this to be useful.
Assume: no semirares, -20% combat available. +175% items (see sonars).
You get .275 outfit pieces per combat turn and 1 outfit piece per noncombat turn.
So, per turn you get .7*.275 + .3 = .4925 outfit pieces per turn. So, about 6 turns for the outfit.
Say 9 turns, on average, to get your ore.
Clovers take 3 turns to save 15. 4 turns per clover.
Stats are minimal here. You'll face about 210 base ML worth of monster over 4.2 monsters.
Leftovers: 4 turns @ +150% items
Thanks draco!
40% drop, 5 monsters, so trivial to cap, so 5 turns avg to farm
Chasm: 3.7 turns/clover at +175%. 4 turns/clover at +100%. (ignores loadstone)
Known issues with this math: ignores loadstone
You start with 13.5 fasteners and 13.5 lumber from the bridge.
Assume +175% items (see sonars).
You have a 100% chance of one and a 10% chance of another. So expect 1.275 things per turn.
A clover gives 6 things and takes one turn.
To get 6 things normally would take 4.7 turns at +175%.
To get 6 things normally would take 5 turns at +100%.
Then -1 to use the clover.
100% combats, base ML of 75.
Oasis: 3

Gum:
+10% combat total = 7.33 if you need gum, 4.19 on average
+15% combat total = 6.69 if you need gum, 3.82 on average
+20% combat total = 6.14 if you need gum, 3.51 on average
50% base combat rate. 6 noncoms, one is skippable.
X = 10, 15, 20% +combat total
So, chance of right adv is = (1/6)*(.5+X) + (1/6)*(1/6)*(.5+X) + (1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(.5+X) + ...
= (.5+X) * 1/5
So, 10% ==> .12 chance ==> 8.33
So, 15% ==> .13 chance ==> 7.69
So, 20% ==> .14 chance ==> 7.14

Now, we only actually need gum 4/7 of the time.
So, actual turns saved (netting out clover turn):
10% ==> 4/7*(8.33-1) = 4.19
15% ==> 3.82
20% ==> 3.51
Lowercase N: 7 turns @+233% items (or YR available). 3 turns if you also need the meat vortex. (Assumes all other letters, ignores chance of 31337 scroll)
You have the G (or the WAD). You can force the drop (because otherwise...).
1 of 8 monsters. So 8 turns to find him.
1 turn to use the clover.
Guitar: 5 if capped/forced. 8.09 turns at +175% items. 11.5 turns at +100% items. (assumes free crafting)
Assumes your best shot is the acoustic guitar, not to smash and graaagh the 4-d one or something.
5 monsters in zone. 20% base.
Capped/forced = 5
+175% = .2*2.75/5 = .11 => 9.09
+100% = .2*2/5 = .08 => 12.5 turns!
blessed large box: 3.46 turns @ +150% items (assuming you have 5k and DoD is open).
Assumes you can drink test. And that you gain nothing by potentially not needing to drink test.
Assumes you have 5k for the mimic.
5 monsters in zone. Kobold drops 1.2, mind flayer drops 1.0, QM drops 2.0, base.
At +150% items, that goes to 3, 2.5, 5.
So a combat drops 2.1 potions @ +150%.
Mimic drops 12.5 in 25% of the noncoms. So 3.125 potions/noncom.
So, you run -combat. -20%.
70% base combat rate, 50/50 split after modifiers.
So you get 2.6 potions/turn while you can get mimics.
Turns to farm 1 unknown potion: .384
There are 9 potions.
To get the 1 you need, takes, on average 3.46 turns.

User avatar
lotsofphil
Leader of rum ham
Posts: 4075
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:56 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lotsofphil » Tue Feb 26, 2013 5:13 pm

For gum, I figure just assume you'll need gum. Otherwise your run sucks anyways.

greycat
AFH
Posts: 359
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:42 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by greycat » Wed Feb 27, 2013 7:48 am

lotsofphil wrote: 565 = Eyedrops, gap vision, 3 jeks @ 50 (on March 4), egg man, happier resolution, KGE, 3 unicorns, sorority brain, hypnodisk, monocle
Hard to wear 3 jeks + monocle. Also, nobody said the spading had to be done with Jarlsberg. It would be a lot easier to hit +565% with a real familiar instead of an egg man.

User avatar
Pewt
AFH
Posts: 200
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:56 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by Pewt » Wed Feb 27, 2013 1:22 pm

Confirming A-Boo clues are at least 15% and at least one of the monsters is less than 20%.

Draco Cracona
Gatekeeper of Hell
Posts: 1149
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 1:59 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by Draco Cracona » Thu Feb 28, 2013 9:34 am

Leftovers: 4 turns (40% drop, 5 monsters, so trivial to cap, so 5 turns avg to farm)

User avatar
lightwolf
AFH
Posts: 426
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 6:16 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lightwolf » Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:50 am

Just curious, ive been using 2 clovers for boo clues my last few runs, just because I've had the extra clovers (80 pulls 4 day, 7 day HC run) and AoJ had like 0 item drop.

What is that second clover worth there if you only have 30-50% item drop?

User avatar
lostcalpolydude
Forum Maestro
Posts: 2940
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:54 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lostcalpolydude » Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:08 pm

lightwolf wrote:Just curious, ive been using 2 clovers for boo clues my last few runs, just because I've had the extra clovers (80 pulls 4 day, 7 day HC run) and AoJ had like 0 item drop.

What is that second clover worth there if you only have 30-50% item drop?
That gives you an effective drop rate of about 20%. 1 turn to use the clover versus 4 combats just to clear out enough hauntedness for 3 clues to be enough. After that, there is a 41% chance (0.8^4) that one still has not dropped. Five turns expected times 41% is about +2 turns. There's also an 8% chance of finding 2 clues in the first 3 turns, and a 4% chance of finding them in the first 2 turns, so -0.16 turns for that. That puts it at about 4.8 turns saved in the zone by using a clover.
bmaher: Softcore character
lostcalpolydude: Hardcore character (abandoned)

User avatar
lostcalpolydude
Forum Maestro
Posts: 2940
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:54 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lostcalpolydude » Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:41 am

I think the blessed large box numbers also assume you have a large box to start with (to make the blessed box), and it looks like it also misses that you can just use the large box that you must already have to try getting through the gate (with the same assumption that getting drunkenness is okay). 1 - (8/9)^5 = 44% chance of that working. Accounting for the box being able to give 4-6 rather than using the average 5 is a negligible change in the results, regardless of the distribution assumed.
bmaher: Softcore character
lostcalpolydude: Hardcore character (abandoned)

User avatar
lotsofphil
Leader of rum ham
Posts: 4075
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:56 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lotsofphil » Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:44 pm

That sounds right. Can you fix the numbers?

User avatar
lotsofphil
Leader of rum ham
Posts: 4075
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:56 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lotsofphil » Mon May 20, 2013 4:18 pm

As pewt has pointed out, since you now [use] A-boo clues, this plays a little differently. Not sure how it effects the clover savings. You'll probably want to know turn savings if you get 0/1/2 clues in your 4 ghosts.
If anyone is in the mood to do that, go for it.

User avatar
lightwolf
AFH
Posts: 426
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 6:16 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lightwolf » Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:19 pm

Given recent changes, what is a smut orc camp clover worth?

Compared to normal and/or loadstone+axe?

User avatar
lotsofphil
Leader of rum ham
Posts: 4075
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:56 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lotsofphil » Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:28 pm

lightwolf wrote:Given recent changes, what is a smut orc camp clover worth?

Compared to normal and/or loadstone+axe?
As the person with 5/12 posts in this thread, I think this question is directed at me. So...
I'm not going to figure it out :) If you crunch the numbers I will edit them into the top post.

User avatar
lightwolf
AFH
Posts: 426
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 6:16 pm

Re: Clover turn-savings in hardcore

Post by lightwolf » Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:56 pm

:|

*edit* apparently my math, the data, and my face are all wrong.

Well you need 30 planks and 30 fasteners to progress (60 total). Bridge gets you half. meaning you have about 15 remaining...

Then lets take this data as acquired From lilac

You need 30 more items, so to complete this in the amount of turns you are getting an average of 30/turns item per adv
22 Turns with no special items (1.3 parts per turn)
20 Truns with one or the other (1.5 parts per turn)
16 turns with both. (darth says about 15 here with 100% item) [1.875 parts per turn]

A clover gets you 3 of each part? 6 total. So comparatively...
4.6 Turns Saved with no special items
4.0 Turns Saved when your using loadstone or Ax
3.2 Turns Saved when using both.

Getting the Ax saves you 4-5 turns on its own. Compared to Mus zone where you get screwdriver without a pull, and frilly skirt.
Myst zone can also potentially give you an extra clover. which is another 3-4 turns saved per day.

Post Reply