Ice House Strategy Discussion

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ungawa
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Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by ungawa » Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:50 pm

One of the new items from the Winter Garden is the Ice House. Based on the item description, it was clearly a banish. Now, thanks to cannonfire40, we know it is a perma-banish in the truest sense yet. Not only does the banish persist through rollover, it persists through ascension!
It seems you can have one monster banished at a time, and you can choose to melt the Ice House to remove the banish. http://forums.kingdomofloathing.com/vb/ ... tcount=167

Now the question is, what one monster do you never want to see again from a speed perspective? Any gimicks for aftercore that you can pull off with an additional perma-banish?

From a speed run perspective, the AMC Gremlin is the first one that comes to mind. Can anyone come up with something better?
The benefit of icing the gremlin is you aren't olfacting in the junkyard, whereas a lot of other targets you'd banish are in zones where you're olfacting something else.

I won't bother listing the multitude of 3 monster zones where you want to olfact one.
-Harem Guard, cause it sucks to get him 3 times in a row before seeing anything else
-Useless pirate from the f'c'le to conserve item drop buffs
-Pygmy orderly is a high priority banish in most runs
-Haunted ballroom (if dance card powerlevelling)

I don't really see any of these competing with the AMC Gremlin, barring challenge path shenanigans.

Special Case uses:
-Menagerie to improve lime farming if we have a challenge path where key lime pies are a majority of the diet.
-If you're going for an in-run bounty, icing a monster from that zone help will increase the likelihood of finishing before finishing the zone, such as helping get a triffid earlier in the woods, or a giant if you're going for the raver bounty.
-Bullet Bill if you don't have access to anything better than 8-bit realm to make your digital key

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lotsofphil
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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by lotsofphil » Thu Jan 02, 2014 7:45 pm

AMC gremlin saves 4 turns. Right? The others seem less cut-and-dried. I think the pygmy orderly might be pretty solid, as you say. I think you're likely to see quite a few of those. At least 2 :)

If anyone is starting a Bad Moon run soon, I'd really like to know if it persists into Bad Moon.

edit: really like to know = will buy your ice house or whatever, if needed

double edit: I ascended BM. I'll let us all know in a week.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by Draco Cracona » Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:03 pm

Woah. I'd say gremlin- frees up other banishes on non-tool gremlins there, for HC at least. Most other banish targets can be hit with other banishes (nanorhino the orderlies, for example, whilst smiths banishing other stuff there, whilst you need loads of banishes in the junkyard, ideally.

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ungawa
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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by ungawa » Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:35 pm

And if the entire kingdom ends up putting the AMC gremlins on ice, there better be some pissed off AMC gremlins driving around next crimbo after global warming happens.

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lotsofphil
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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by lotsofphil » Fri Jan 03, 2014 3:27 pm

(I don't know how to estimate the number of surgeons you'll need to see in the hospital. For now it is just "3")
(I don't banish janitors. If you do, the savings are slightly higher)

Orderlies math:

Bowling alley
Orderlies not banished, janitors not banished, pygmies banished
Turns to find a bowler to sniff: 3
Turns to find 4 more bowlers, trailing: 5.15

Orderlies banished, janitors not banished, pygmies banished
Turns to find a bowler to sniff: 2
Turns to find 4 more bowlers, trailing: 4.54
Savings: 1.61

Hospital
Orderlies not banished, janitors not banished
Turns to find surgeon to sniff: 4
Turns per surgeon: 1.45
Expected turns to boss ?

Orderlies banished, janitors not banished
Turns to find surgeon to sniff: 3
Turns per surgeon: 1.29
Expected turns to boss ?
Savings (3 surgeons): 1.32

Total savings (3 surgeons): 2.93
The math in the surgeon piece is a little bit unclear to me now. The conclusion is the same, though. Orderlies are about 1 turn worse than AMC banish, with olfaction.

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lotsofphil
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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by lotsofphil » Fri Jan 03, 2014 3:54 pm

Chatty pirate
Assume +233% items or higher
No cocktail napkin (although it *barely* matters; I am being lazy and not wanting to add in a re-roll for the NC on the banish)

+combat you are running = -5%, turns to finish zone, with chatty pirates = 8, without chatty pirates = 6.67
+combat you are running = 0%, turns to finish zone, with chatty pirates = 7.5, without chatty pirates = 6.25
+combat you are running = +5%, turns to finish zone, with chatty pirates = 7.06, without chatty pirates = 5.88
+combat you are running = +10%, turns to finish zone, with chatty pirates = 6.67, without chatty pirates = 5.56

Savings, best case = 1.33

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lotsofphil
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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by lotsofphil » Fri Jan 03, 2014 3:57 pm

Non-dirty lihc

No banish
Turns to find dirty lihc = 3
Turns to get remaining 20 beeps = 20 / (0.7763*3 + 0.2237*1) = 7.84

Banish
Turns to find dirty lihc = 2
Turns to get remaining 21 beeps = 21 / (0.88*3 + 0.12*1) = 7.25

Savings: 1.59 turns

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lostcalpolydude
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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by lostcalpolydude » Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:22 pm

lotsofphil wrote:No cocktail napkin (although it *barely* matters; I am being lazy and not wanting to add in a re-roll for the NC on the banish)
I don't understand this. A banished monster can't result in you getting a NC (unless something on the Encounter page of the wiki is wrong).
bmaher: Softcore character
lostcalpolydude: Hardcore character (abandoned)

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lotsofphil
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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by lotsofphil » Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:19 pm

lostcalpolydude wrote:
lotsofphil wrote:No cocktail napkin (although it *barely* matters; I am being lazy and not wanting to add in a re-roll for the NC on the banish)
I don't understand this. A banished monster can't result in you getting a NC (unless something on the Encounter page of the wiki is wrong).
You banish the clingy pirate and it doesn't take a turn, but then you reroll the next encounter. Basically it is (# of monsters including the to-be-banished clingy)/(combat freq) -1 if you have a cocktail napkin. The -1's apply to both scenarios, so it is not a big difference.

This is not material to the discussion.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by Draco Cracona » Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:01 am

lotsofphil wrote:AMC gremlin saves 4 turns. Right? The others seem less cut-and-dried. I think the pygmy orderly might be pretty solid, as you say. I think you're likely to see quite a few of those. At least 2 :)

If anyone is starting a Bad Moon run soon, I'd really like to know if it persists into Bad Moon.

edit: really like to know = will buy your ice house or whatever, if needed
Phil, where did you get that 4 from? Cannon's claimed 2.01 for AMC.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by Draco Cracona » Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:44 am

Draco Cracona wrote:
lotsofphil wrote:AMC gremlin saves 4 turns. Right? The others seem less cut-and-dried. I think the pygmy orderly might be pretty solid, as you say. I think you're likely to see quite a few of those. At least 2 :)

If anyone is starting a Bad Moon run soon, I'd really like to know if it persists into Bad Moon.

edit: really like to know = will buy your ice house or whatever, if needed
Phil, where did you get that 4 from? Cannon's claimed 2.01 for AMC.
Ah, just a simple 4x(4-3), ignoring queue in a zone, so it's a bit less? No idea how cannon got his number.

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lotsofphil
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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by lotsofphil » Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:22 pm

Yup. I just figured you expect to see one of each dude per zone. 4 zones.

edit: 2.01 sounds really, really low.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by Draco Cracona » Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:27 pm

lotsofphil wrote:Yup. I just figured you expect to see one of each dude per zone. 4 zones.

edit: 2.01 sounds really, really low.
Well, queue changes a lot- it has a HUGE impact here.

2.5, accounting for queue, for AMC, as cannon had a bug with clearing the queue. Assuming no other banishes. Much lower than I expected, but still king.

1.9ish regardless of other banishes for Orderlies. Seriously, other banishes make almost no difference, presumably due to sniffing.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by lotsofphil » Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:43 am

Draco, can you tell me where your numbers come from? "Queue" doesn't mean a lot to me.

Also, I ascended BM. In a week or so we'll know if AMC gremlins show up.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by Draco Cracona » Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:20 pm

lotsofphil wrote:Draco, can you tell me where your numbers come from? "Queue" doesn't mean a lot to me.

Also, I ascended BM. In a week or so we'll know if AMC gremlins show up.
Monte carlo simulation, done by cannonfire- http://pastebin.com/Rh5Jwv82 for AMCs, to be run with/without the AMC line comented. In the same way that after delay() was done you had about 5 turns expected for an adding machine, the queue is a powerful beast in negating the strength of banishers. Bigger impact than I expected, though.

8.999 turns avg with AMC banish, 11.51 without AMC banish.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by psly4mne » Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:58 pm

I've done some simulation taking the queue into account. I'll post some preliminary results, each point based on 10k trials.

Bowling Alley:
Assume Janitor and Drunk pre-banished (you would never do this zone without banishing the Janitor first, and you'll get matches to banish the Drunk a good portion of the time)
No other banishes, olfact the first Bowler
1.08 turns saved
(If only the Janitor or only the Drunk is pre-banished, 1.15 turns saved)

Hospital:
Assume Janitor pre-banished
No other banishes, olfact the first Surgeon
0.38 turns saved
(If Janitor is not pre-banished, 0.41 turns saved)

F'c'le:
Assume +5% combat, have a cocktail napkin
Assume the drops are capped, no other banishes
1.07 turns saved.

Niche:
Assume no other banishes, olfact the first dirty
1.07 turns saved

All these savings are reduced if you have other banishes to use, which you usually will. If anyone is interested, I can pretty easily produce results under different assumptions or for other zones.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by Draco Cracona » Mon Jun 02, 2014 5:56 am

psly4mne wrote:I've done some simulation taking the queue into account. I'll post some preliminary results, each point based on 10k trials.

All these savings are reduced if you have other banishes to use, which you usually will. If anyone is interested, I can pretty easily produce results under different assumptions or for other zones.
Are you using the same Monte Carlo script as me/Cannon here? Numbers look about the same, if a smidgen lower for the city for some reason.

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Re: Ice House Strategy Discussion

Post by psly4mne » Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:20 am

I wrote my own script that accounts for banishing and olfaction. To double-check, I ran the Junkyard and got the same numbers as you.

Did you take into account the correct probability of the Specter encounter in the hospital? It's 10% + 10% per surgeonosity. I just reran the script with 1M trials. With 0, 1, or 2 monsters pre-banished, I got 4.952, 4.586, or 4.185. That's 0.37 turns saved on the first pre-banish, 0.4 on the second. Weird, that's reversed from what I wrote in my last post. Maybe I flipped the numbers around in that one the first time. It's counterintuitive that the second banish saves more than the first, but the superlikely does make this a weird zone.

The Bowling Alley is a very straightforward zone. With 0, 1, or 2 monsters pre-banished, I get 7.239, 6.082, or 5 turns. That's 1.16 turns saved on the first pre-banish, 1.08 on the second. Come to think of it, Drunks go into the queue when they're skipping with Scorpions, and they could in theory push orderlies out of the queue, so this isn't exactly accurate, but I expect that is a tiny effect.

Putting those together, that's 1.48 or 1.52 or turns saved for the orderly, if the janitor is or is not banished ahead of time, respectively.

That said, this is not really a useful simulation. The only paths where you would consider ice housing something other than the AMC are softcore S&S and maybe BM. In SC S&S, you will have additional banishes, which reduces the gains, and you're probably also pulling bowling balls, making orderlies a bad choice. In BM, you have a limited number of odor extractors, which complicates the situation.

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