How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muffler)

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Phreddrickk
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How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muffler)

Post by Phreddrickk » Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:44 pm

I just did some numbers on the loud muffler, considering that many are deeming it optimal at high-skill. I'll start with a quick TL;DR of my conclusions, for those who don't like numbers:
The loud muffler is insanely optimal for high-skill hard peter if you don't have the rocket launcher, but if you do, it gets surprisingly iffy. Also I don't like consistent capitalization when it comes to capitalizing skill, effect, item, and zone names.

I made several assumptions with these calculations: firstly, that the ballroom song is on for everything but the beach, and that turning it off for the beach takes zero turns because you do it while powerlevelling. Second, I basically ignored the queue, and said that for the F'c'le, since drops are trivially capped, you just need to encounter every monster in the zone (minus the clingy pirate) once. Queue janx would only reduce the value of the loud muffler, but honestly, the F'c'le and Whitey's grove savings are almost nothing compared to the beach. I also assumed that you only ran renewable resources: no hot dogs, swimming pools buff, reodorant, or jukebox-hitting. I also didn't include the power of pickpocketing on the eXtreme slope, but I assure you that it's minimal.

The extra-loud muffler is here assumed to be +10% combat rate. I'm not sure if brood is 10% or 15%, and I made some pretty generous assumptions about the nature of the eXtreme slope that I'll explain when I get to that.

Whitey's Grove has a base combat rate of 75%. With ballroom, this is 70%. 85% vs 70%.
4 monsters, you need to encounter a lion and a snake, taking roughly 4 combats.
(1/.7-1/.85)(4)=1 turn

F'c'le has a base combat rate of 80%. With Ballroom, this is 75%. 90% vs 75%.
Clingy gets banished for free, so 5 combats
(1/.75-1/.9)(5)=1.1 turns

The snowmen assassins I honestly pulled the numbers from an old GD thread. My math didn't include the ceilings, and I got 17.9 turns at net +5% combat (10% from muffler minus 5% from ballroom), the numbers done with the ceiling claim 14.6 That's a surprisingly significant difference of 3.3 turns, but this is still negligible in the long run because of the beach. The calculation for my result is here: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=3% ... B+.015t%29

I made some pretty weird assumptions about the eXtreme slope. I assumed that the first noncombat after getting the outfit is a 100% rate superlikely (this is based off of what greycat said in a fairly old GD thread), and that the others scale precisely to noncombat rate. Kind of a weird assumption, yeah.
The eXtreme slope's natural combat rate is 95%. With Brood and Ballroom, this is either 80% or 75%.
You can trivially run +315% items, with Natural Dancer, super great hair, Miner's Helmet, and Sneaky Pete's Basket.
There are four noncombats, three of which give access to two relevant items, one of which gives access to any relevant item. Each monster in the zone has a base drop rate of about 10%, there are three monsters, one for each relevant equipment.
I did the math in chunks. I summed the number of turns it takes to get your first unique item, your second unique item, and your third unique item. I then added the turns to complete the quest via noncombat.

If Brood gives -10%, it takes 19.1 turns. If Brood gives -15%, it takes 16.4

My result for the assassins feels super wrong, so we'll go with 14.6. The loud muffler saves either 4.5 or 1.8 turns, depending upon the power of Brood. Cool, right?

Finally, the beach. I made a pretty big mistake in assuming that the beach isn't worth doing without +combat, and the fact that I'm not paying attention to Junkyard Dogs and Reodorant definitely makes these iffy to say the least, but if you have an ice sculpture and run a net of +10% combat, the beach takes 21 turns. It should be noted that I'm assuming that you do the orchard, gremlins, and junkyard, but do not do the nuns.

I'm going to omit the actual arithmetic for determining how fast the war goes under the four scenarios of LFM vs no LFM and Rocket Launcher vs Rocketlessness, but here are the results:
With no LFM or Rocket, you spend 133 turns in the battlefield.
With LFM but no Rocket, you spend 67 turns in the battlefield. Daaaaang.
With Rocket but no LFM, you spend 95 turns in the battlefield.
With both Rocket and LFM, you spend 56 turns in the battlefield.

It takes 21 turns to do the beach with +10% combat and an ice sculpture, so by adding and subtracting stuff, you save 45 turns without the rocket launcher, or 14 with.

This is fairly sweet, but there are some important things to note: if you use snow tires, this is less valuable. If you use a rocket launcher, this is a lot less valuable. If you time things right with a junkyard dog and do the beach and the assassins with it, this is a lot less valuable.

That being said, I actually think that this is pretty optimal under certain conditions in high-skill hard Peter. Noncombat is already surprisingly abundant with the Ballroom, Ghost Dog, Olympic Pool, Brood, and Ashes, so the noncombat muffler isn't very optimal. Also, considering that the turn savings in the McLargehuge Quest are not massive, I think that this points to two potentially optimal hella sweet bike builds:
Loud Muffler/Snow Tires/Sweepy Red Light, and Smelly Muffler/Racing Slicks/Rocket Launcher. The Sweepy Red Light may be less powerful than the Ghost Vacuum, but you catch my assorted drifts. There are still a few bike options that are undecided, like the Blacklight vs. the Ultrabright, but the Tank and Seat are already pretty well-decided. I hope that these tentative numbers influence your decisionmaking for the better.

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lotsofphil
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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by lotsofphil » Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:30 pm

Your assassin numbers appear to be using +10% combat for the muffler, not +15%.

Also, people haven't spaded brood? that can't be. Lo and behold: http://forums.kingdomofloathing.com/vb/ ... stcount=23
10%. Cannonfire doesn't post his data, but combat mod spading is quite simple, so we can trust him.

For the war, it is AJB-O pretty much no matter what, right? There is very, very little +meat on offer in HC as far as I know (inhaler, tea party, winklered, facial expression = +330). So it is either skipping the beach or doing the beach (spoiler: you're doing the beach):
AJ-O, w/ rocket launcher: 95 = 10 kills @ 7, 85 kills @ 11.
AJ-O w/o RL: 133 = 16 @ 4, 117 @ 8
AJB-O w/ RL: 56 = 6 @ 11, 50 @ 19
AJB-O w/o RL: 67 = 8 @ 8, 59 @ 16

So, beach turns for 4 LFM encounters and 1 copied fight:
+0% combat: 41 turns
+5% combat: 28 turns
+10% combat: 21 turns
+15% combat: 17 turns
+20% combat: 15 turns
+25% combat: 13 turns

Nobody in their right mind would do the beach at 0% combat, so you're likely comparing 5% to 20%, which is a savings of, at most, 13 turns at the beach from the muffler. This is independent of the rocket launcher. The only real opportunity cost is eating a junkyard dog vs. a ghost dog.

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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by Draco Cracona » Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:44 am

If you're spending >10 adv getting two assassins, you want to be using two in your calculations. Remember that you get one every 10 adv in the zone, as long as you're running +com. +5% gives ~15 adv expected; don't have any numbers on +10%, but I'd expect 13-14 or so. Should be able to run the numbers on that later, though.

I would assume a 25% superlikely, affected by +/- combat, for the slope. That's probably the weakest part, I'd guess?

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lotsofphil
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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by lotsofphil » Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:13 am

lotsofphil wrote: AJ-O, w/ rocket launcher: 95 = 10 kills @ 7, 85 kills @ 11.
AJ-O w/o RL: 133 = 16 @ 4, 117 @ 8
AJB-O w/ RL: 56 = 6 @ 11, 50 @ 19
AJB-O w/o RL: 67 = 8 @ 8, 59 @ 16
Without nuns, rocket launcher saves 11 turns. Sweepy red light is +5 stats per turn. Ignore offstats and we have 2.5 moxie per turn and assume 100 moxie per turn from powerleveling. Then you need 440 combats for the light to be better. If you assume a more reasonable 80 moxie per turn, then you're at 352.

Sweepy red light is better at [(11 - number of turns saved by not powerleveling offstats)*(moxie stat per turn from powerleveling)/2.5] combats.

With nuns...
AJB-ON w/ RL: 36 = 6 @ 11, 7 @ 19, 23 @ 35
AJB-ON w/o RL: 42 = 8 @ 8, 8 @ 16, 26 @ 32
RL saves 6 turns.
Sweepy red light is better at [(6 - number of turns saved by not powerleveling offstats)*(moxie stat per turn from powerleveling)/2.5] combats.

With nuns trick...
AJB-ON w/ RL: 36 = 4 @ 19, 27 @ 35
AJB-ON w/o RL: 42 = 4 @ 16, 30 @ 32
RL saves 3 turns.
Sweepy red light is better at [(3 - number of turns saved by not powerleveling offstats)*(moxie stat per turn from powerleveling)/2.5] combats.

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slaphappy snark
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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by slaphappy snark » Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:56 am

lotsofphil wrote:Your assassin numbers appear to be using +10% combat for the muffler, not +15%.

Also, people haven't spaded brood? that can't be. Lo and behold: http://forums.kingdomofloathing.com/vb/ ... stcount=23
10%. Cannonfire doesn't post his data, but combat mod spading is quite simple, so we can trust him.
I'm a little confused because I've been hearing rumors that his numbers for ashes and the muffler are wrong, which is why there is a question about brood. I guess I can check ashes myself and come back here...So, um, brb.

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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by slaphappy snark » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:08 am

7 "and ons" with ashes and ballroom song, which makes 10% for ashes correct.
4 "and ons" with ashes (10%), ballroom song (5%), sprints (5%), and unmuffled. 4 means 5% overall, which means total 15% for unmuffled, correct? (Seriously, please let me know if I screwed this up.)
This was likely totally unnecessary for everything except my brain, so thanks for listening. Good job with the actual mathing effort, phredd.
(Also, this feels weird because Kujjie did not think airship spading was sufficient and grumped at me during Boris times.)

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lotsofphil
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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by lotsofphil » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:25 am

slaphappy snark wrote:7 "and ons" with ashes and ballroom song, which makes 10% for ashes correct.
4 "and ons" with ashes (10%), ballroom song (5%), sprints (5%), and unmuffled. 4 means 5% overall, which means total 15% for unmuffled, correct? (Seriously, please let me know if I screwed this up.)
This was likely totally unnecessary for everything except my brain, so thanks for listening. Good job with the actual mathing effort, phredd.
(Also, this feels weird because Kujjie did not think airship spading was sufficient and grumped at me during Boris times.)
Your math is right. I've never known the airship to be wrong. But I guess we still need to double-check Brood because cannonfire didn't post enough?

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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by slaphappy snark » Thu Feb 20, 2014 10:13 am

I'm sort of surprised that he found the -com muffler to be 10% but the +com muffler is 15%. It makes sense to some degree, since there are no other sources of +com, but it still makes me want to double-check all of the things if we can (or at least the things we care about, like brood?)

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lotsofphil
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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by lotsofphil » Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:30 am

slaphappy snark wrote:I'm sort of surprised that he found the -com muffler to be 10% but the +com muffler is 15%. It makes sense to some degree, since there are no other sources of +com, but it still makes me want to double-check all of the things if we can (or at least the things we care about, like brood?)
The only things you haven't confirmed are Brood and -combat muffler?

edit: also, wiki says -15% on muffler

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Phreddrickk
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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by Phreddrickk » Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:34 am

slaphappy snark wrote:I'm sort of surprised that he found the -com muffler to be 10% but the +com muffler is 15%. It makes sense to some degree, since there are no other sources of +com, but it still makes me want to double-check all of the things if we can (or at least the things we care about, like brood?)
This definitely is the sort of thing that should have symmetry. I've heard 10 and 15 pretty equally for the muffler, each saying that the other is old spading, so I really don't know what's going on.

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lotsofphil
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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by lotsofphil » Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:39 am

The wiki comment on the -15% muffler at least mentions the correct methodology. For -10% brood someone just tacked it in there.
Both need to be rechecked. Brood especially so.

edit: dgc and bmaher deliver
[12:39][clan] darkgreycat: With ballroom + Muffled I get 9 "and on..." lines
this confirms muffler is -15%
[12:38][clan] bmaher: i get 11 "and on..."s with brooding plus -combat muffler
this gives a floor of -10% for Brood, but, unfortunately the diminishing returns don't tell us if it is -15% or -20%

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Phreddrickk
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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by Phreddrickk » Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:43 am

Well that makes it even better, but not by much. Diminishing returns, and whatall.

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Re: How sweet is the sweetest bike?(numbers on the loud muff

Post by lotsofphil » Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:03 pm

Double-checked brood, it is -10% (9 and ons with ballroom and folder -combat)

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