Naughty Sorceress block rate and more

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Antipasta
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Naughty Sorceress block rate and more

Post by Antipasta » Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:52 pm

Here's a summary of some stuff I found by sending in my spading multi to fight 15k rounds vs. the Naughty Sorceress. The general info (e.g. that the sorceress blocks less in succeeding battles after she beats you) is probably common knowledge, but I don't see much of this in the wiki, at least not with numbers attached. [reposted from the clan forum for Old CW's Germ Free Clan, where my multi antimarty lives].

This was collected with an unascended character.

- If the Naughty Sorceress defeats you, the next time you face her she will block fewer of your spells or combat items.

- you MUST die to get the effect - running away is no help!

- After you have died four times, there is no further improvement in the block rate.

- The two forms of the sorceress block at the same rate, and they block combat items and spells equally.

- The sorceress can steal your mp, but she will not steal anything once you are down to your last 20 mp.

- The sorceress can heal up far beyond the point where she started! At the end of a long battle, she may have over 1000 HP.

- If you have enough moxie, the sorceress will NEVER hit you. This is unlike normal monsters, which can always hit you with a "critical hit" no matter what your moxie. I did not spade the safe moxie, but 210 was safe for form 1. You need more to be safe with form 2.


Here's the block rate data:

Code: Select all

deaths     tries         blocks       block %
0          1640          1223         74.6
1          1113          706          63.4
2          814           443          54.4
3          965           356          36.9
4          848           244          28.8
5          1320          404          30.6
6          831           263          31.6
7          817           270          33
8          833           246          29.5
9          1312          362          27.6
10         503           147          29.2
11         415           125          30.1
12         422           115          27.3
13         436           106          24.3
14         853           250          29.3
15         405           122          30.1
16         437           122          27.9
17         406           122          30
18         383           118          30.8
19         869           256          29.5


edit: here's a link to a spreadsheet with more detailed info broken out by form and item vs spell (conclusion: it's all the same; form 1 vs form 2 doesn't matter, and items vs. spells doesn't matter)
http://antimarty.googlepages.com/NSblockrate.xls
Last edited by Antipasta on Sun Feb 24, 2008 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:03 pm

Today feels like christmas (and I'm not even christian). A few thousand rounds of spaded data, all parsed out and with a nice conclusion to boot! As far as I know, no spading of this sort has been posted in a public place.

Can you post a breakdown for spells/items, and for first form vs second? I'd like to see that data, which would be a nice conclusion to this project.

When you listed varying amounts of deaths... does running away/beating first form reset the counter, or was this over the course of dozens of ascensions?

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Post by Seal Lubber » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:51 pm

Nicely done, that should be pretty handy for Bad Moon and newbies alike. I think there's more than a few people who routinely suicide 20 or more turns in the belief that it continues to improve their chances.

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Post by Brulak » Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:43 am

As tghis data was collected with an unascended character, I want to put in a new question: How many ascensions does it take to bump her blockage down? What is the counter in HC or Bad Moon runs?

I find it very very hard to believe I've seen 75% blockage over my last 100 ascensions, but your data would suggest so.

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Post by greycat » Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:43 am

This is a truly wonderful result. Thank you.

But I can't help wondering whether the block rate (and in particular, the number of times you must die to reach 30%) depends on your number of ascensions. We've seen other things in the game that depend on that number (Baron von Ratsworth, drinks from the guild, hermit clovers).

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:54 am

In NS11, the familiar debuff was 25% with 0-2 previous ascensions, and 50% with 3 or more previous ascensions. This seems to be the simplest way to test whether a NS "noobsphere" still exists, and to find it's length.

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Post by Antipasta » Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:55 pm

I'll post the more detailed breakdown with form1/form2 and combat items vs. spells in a couple of days when I get home, turns out this laptop doesn't have a copy.

I'd love to see something for chars with more ascensions, too (and for bad moon). My real chars are in slow lucre collecting normal hardcore and bad moon now, so if they can pile up the resources to cast items and spells by the thousands I'll go ahead and do it.

Bad Moon, especially, I'd love to know for sure - I had a 12 day seal clubber run turn into 13 when I threw away every resource I had on the first couple NS battles and couldn't put together another winning fight for ages. If I'd known that the magic death number was only 4, and not 20 or something, I would have been a little more patient!

edit:
In NS11, the familiar debuff was 25% with 0-2 previous ascensions, and 50% with 3 or more previous ascensions. This seems to be the simplest way to test whether a NS "noobsphere" still exists, and to find it's length.

Just did a quick test with this same unascended character - a 30 lb fuzzy dice did 22 damage and/or restore. Fuzzy dice always acts for its full weight, so it was acting at 3/4 strength (25% debuff) [edited for better math skillz].
Last edited by Antipasta on Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:03 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by KujjieKujjieKoo » Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:56 pm

I've got my BM basement contest multi staring at his shadow right now. I'll try to gather up some resources for the fights, then spend a day or two spading away.
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Post by salien » Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:35 pm

Antipasta wrote:Just did a quick test with this same unascended character - a 30 lb fuzzy dice did 22 damage and/or restore. Fuzzy dice always acts for its full weight, so it was acting at 2/3 strength (33% debuff).


Uh... Isn't 22 from 30 a 27% reduction? So probably still 25%, with rounding...

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:48 pm

In NS-11, familiar weight was floored after any reduction. So floor(75% of 30) = 22, as expected if nothing has changed. And fuzzy dice is the method I used initially to calculate the debuff.

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Post by Antipasta » Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:02 am

QuantumNightmare wrote:In NS-11, familiar weight was floored after any reduction. So floor(75% of 30) = 22, as expected if nothing has changed. And fuzzy dice is the method I used initially to calculate the debuff.


Oops, I can't do math!

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:41 pm

This is kujjie's bad moon data with zero previous deaths, parsed by a code I just threw together. Note how the block rate is substantially lower than was seen by an unascended character. Yet to be seen if this is a BM thing, or due to having more ascensions. As well, kujjie successfully ran away every time he attempted to.

Code: Select all

Zero previous deaths
Fought Naughty Sorceress 29 times for 1160 rounds
Item blocked: 552
Item not blocked: 608
Item block rate = 0.48

Shimmer: 0
Heal: 66
MP steal: 16


EDIT: familiar debuff is still 50% for highly ascended characters, as tested with my main

EDIT EDIT: NS first form has a defence of 187. This implies an ML of 207. This was very roughly spaded, and further testing needs to be done to check variance.
Last edited by QuantumNightmare on Sat Feb 23, 2008 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by salien » Fri Feb 22, 2008 12:34 am

Was that defense/ML tested over multiple encounters? In other words, are her stats constant or does she have the 5% variance?

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Sat Feb 23, 2008 12:28 am

Running total of two day's worth of spading, in BM with 0 deaths. All data collected by kujjie. Again, this is an updated list, which includes all the data I posted earlier. Looks like the block rate is unchanged between forms, even though anecdotally I expected it to be much higher for the second form. The parser doesn't record the ~50 attacks that kujjie did in order to reach the 2nd form, so the numbers add up to just under 2200 rounds.

Code: Select all

Fought Naughty Sorceress 55 times, reaching 2nd form 22 times for a total of 2200 rounds

Form 1:
Item blocked: 637
Item not blocked: 689
Item block rate = 48.0%
Shimmer: 0
Heal: 80
MP steal: 16

Form 2:
Item blocked: 393
Item not blocked: 429
Item block rate = 47.8%
Shimmer: 0
Heal: 44
MP steal: 0


Also: 15 pound lime does 4-9 damage, 16 pound lime does 5-10 damage.

We expect (weight/2)+1 to weight+2 damage from a lime, so it looks like the 15 pound lime is as 7 pounds and the 16 pound lime is at 8 pounds. That's consistent with effective weight being floor(50% weight). Since this is BM, fuzzy dice testing is difficult, however this basic testing does provide the expected result.

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Post by Antipasta » Sun Feb 24, 2008 5:33 pm

That bad moon stuff looks super interesting!

I screwed up with my bad moon character and forgot about the spading project, good thing Kujjie is there. I'm really looking forward to info on block rate with more deaths, since I'd been routinely dying on purpose when fighting as anything but moxie class.

Also, I edited my initial post with a link to a spreadsheet that breaks out the two forms, and spells vs items (I only spot checked items, since they looked the same, and I'm missing the initial form 2 zero death data due to me messing up the mafia script and getting killed before I got to her).

The conclusion is that form 1 and form 2 block at the same rate, and items and spells are blocked at the same rate. I also was surprised that form 2 wasn't worse; she seems more evil than the first form. I guess it's the drooling, and the waving tentacles reaching out to grab your stuff.

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Sun Feb 24, 2008 6:14 pm

Antipasta wrote:The conclusion is that form 1 and form 2 block at the same rate, and items and spells are blocked at the same rate. I also was surprised that form 2 wasn't worse; she seems more evil than the first form. I guess it's the drooling, and the waving tentacles reaching out to grab your stuff.
That's a remarkable conclusion, now that I've taken a look at the data. A small request: can you parse the frequency of NS HP heals and MP steals, compared to combat rounds?

For some numbers, it's a simple case of a 75% block rate at 0 deaths, decreasing by 10% for each of the first 4 deaths down to a minimum of a 30% block rate. This occurs with few ascensions, and the block rate is actually LESS for BM. Nice job, once again.

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Tue Feb 26, 2008 7:58 pm

A few turns of combat against the NS in casual with 0 kills, and several hundred ascensions. HP readings are an average of the results obtained from the toy space helmet/clockwork detective skull.

Code: Select all

Fought Naughty Sorceress 27 times, reaching 2nd form 0 times for a total of 1248 rounds

Form 1:
Skills blocked: 554
Skills not blocked: 745
Skill block rate = 42.6%
Shimmer: 0
Heal: 60
MP steal: 48

HP testing:
HP (0 heals, 375 points) = 415.94
HP (1 heals, 243 points) = 515.29
HP (2 heals, 179 points) = 645.62
HP (3 heals, 55 points) = 758.11
HP (4 heals, 26 points) = 804.92


Some conclusions:
--The block rate seems low, I'll see what happens with a few deaths
--NS defense was 200, constant
--She seems to heal by 100-120HP with each red vial

EDIT: with 1 death:


Code: Select all

Fought Naughty Sorceress 23 times, reaching 2nd form 0 times for a total of 1105 rounds

Form 1:
Attacks: 0
Twiddles: 15
Skills blocked: 443
Skills not blocked: 647
Skill block rate = 40.6%
Shimmer: 0
Heal: 49
MP steal: 52

HP testing:
HP (0 heals, 347 points) = 409.44
HP (1 heals, 153 points) = 517.49
HP (2 heals, 179 points) = 604.47
HP (3 heals, 73 points) = 719.32
HP (4 heals, 16 points) = 780.81


EDIT EDIT: with 2 kills

Code: Select all

Fought Naughty Sorceress 18 times, reaching 2nd form 0 times for a total of 871 rounds

Form 1:
Skills blocked: 248
Skills not blocked: 611
Skill block rate = 28.9%
Shimmer: 0
Heal: 54
MP steal: 43

HP testing:
HP (0 heals, 162 points) = 434.01
HP (1 heals, 169 points) = 540.85
HP (2 heals, 124 points) = 613.05
HP (3 heals, 88 points) = 736.28
HP (4 heals, 41 points) = 808.95
HP (5 heals, 11 points) = 789.55

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Wed Feb 27, 2008 1:19 pm

Combined totals for all NS testing done. Looks like each time the NS heals, she restores 100 HP.

Code: Select all

Fought Naughty Sorceress 68 times, reaching 2nd form 0 times for a total of 3274 rounds

HP testing:
HP (0 heals, 822 points) = 409.68
HP (1 heals, 591 points) = 516.35
HP (2 heals, 459 points) = 616.16
HP (3 heals, 262 points) = 716.98
HP (4 heals, 86 points) = 795.43
HP (5 heals, 21 points) = 820.10

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Post by Malaidar » Thu Feb 28, 2008 4:33 am

I believe the safe moxie level for the NS is around 230. In the past few ascensions I have done (I'm sorry, but I don't have exact figures), I have had my moxie up over that amount and have never once been hit during any of the forms.

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Post by Friederike » Thu Feb 28, 2008 5:35 am

Actually, safe moxie is at most 208 for the second form. Unless you forget to turn off the MCD, then it's a bit more...

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Post by Kevlar » Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:16 am

Today I tried to see if the NS removes negative bad moon buffs.

She happily cured me of my #1 problem, before promply kicking my arse.

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Post by Seal Lubber » Thu Mar 13, 2008 6:39 am

So we've got some data for HP, block rates, healing rates, etc. Is it possible for the mathemagicians around here to make an NS-killer spreadsheet? The user would plug in stats, DA, weapon power, bonus damage, best healing item, best combat item and anything else and get a percent chance of victory. I feel like its probably not even possible, but there's some impressive stuff out there already.

The benefits would be newbies/Bad Mooners not wasting all their resources in a lost cause, and maybe optimisation of NS prep in Bad Moon.

Feasible? Unfeasible? Not even feasible with perfect data you idiot, what are you thinking, seriously?

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:45 pm

BM data (all collected by kujjie):

Code: Select all

Deaths    Rounds    Block rate
0         2200      48.0%
1         200       43.0%
2         1080      42.3%
3         1000      34.5%
4         1000      30.5%
5         0
6         1000      28.1%
7         1000      31.0%
8         1000      30.6%


Looks like a 50% block rate that decreases by 5% per death, to a minimum of 30% after 4 deaths. Sample size is very small at 1 death, but the results follow the pattern antipasta showed earlier quite nicely - except for the difference in magnitude.

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Post by Antipasta » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:11 pm

Here's another bit of NS spading I did, mostly aimed at Bad Moon folk, but useful for anybody. I collected this with a once-ascended softcore char, so I'd love to see it verified for Bad Moon, where it would help the most. It's easy data to collect, since you don't need large sample sizes.

-----------------------

Deleveling the NS is a key technique for winning the fight as a relatively low level character, especially in Bad Moon... It can make the difference in whether she can hit you at all for moxie characters, or whether you can hit her at all for moxie and muscle types. And myst chars need all the help they can get!

But if you delevel her too much, she will re-level back up to where she started. So how much is too much? That's the question! Fortunately, the answer is pretty simple.

NS Form 1: you can delevel her by up to 20. She'll relevel instantly at 21.
("The Sorceress pauses for a moment, mutters some words under her breath, and straightens out her dress. Her skin seems to shimmer for a moment.")

NS Form 2: you can delevel her by up to 25. She'll relevel instantly if you hit 26.
("The hideous apparition pulls away from you and wraps its tentacles around itself tightly...")

There is a complete list of delevelling items and effects in the wiki at
http://kol.coldfront.net/thekolwiki/ind ... at_Effects

A pair of items of special interest, because they are easily available to any char, are the macrame nets/superamplified boom boxes (delevel by 8-10, available at the battlefield stores). You can safely use up to two of these on either form. You might be able to use three on form 2, or she might relevel. Be aware that you might miss the relevel message, because these items also have a stun effect, so you will see the relevel a turn late.

Another easily available item is the power 3 knob goblin stink bomb, from the knob laboratory.

------

How did I come up with these numbers? Mostly by using the various disco bandit combat skills:

Code: Select all

skill                 delevel
-----------------------------
Disco Eye-Poke        1
Disco Dance of Doom   3
Disco Dance II        5
Disco Face-Stab       7


For form 1, I verified that 3x Face-Stab (total 21) caused instant relevel, but combinations like Stab-Stab-Dance II-Eyepoke (total 20) and 4x Dance II (total 20) did not. For the last two, I also verified that adding an eyepoke, for 1 more, was enough to trigger an instant relevel.

For form 2, I did similar testing to verify that 3x Face-Stab + 4x Eyepoke (25) was safe, as was 5x Dance II (also 25). Again, an additional Eyepoke for 1 extra delevel was too much.

For both NS forms, I verified that 2 macrame nets was always safe, and that 3 was too much for form 1, and usually too much for form 2.

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Post by jorgensen » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:33 pm

Excellent work, sure to come in handy when I run my BM loop :)

Thanks for sharing!
-Jorgensen-

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Post by Flolle » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:43 pm

Great spading! :)

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Post by lostcalpolydude » Mon May 12, 2008 2:47 am

I decided I wanted to do some spading of this on a character that wasn't in Bad Moon and had multiple ascensions. This character has 15 previous ascensions and was in HC for the testing. I intentionally lost 4 fights to begin with, and every round I attempted to use salsaball.
bssbbssssssbssssbbssssbssssbssbssbssssssssssssssbs
bssssssbsssssbssssssbssbsbssssbbssssssbsssssss
bbbbssbbssbsssbsssssssssbssssbsbsssbbssbbbsbsssbsb
ssbbbbsssbbssbsssssssssbbbbsbbsbsbssbssssbbsssbsss
bsbssssssbsssssbsbsssssbssbsbssssbsbbsssbsssssssss
ssssssbsssssbsssssbbsssssssbsssssssssbssbssbssssbb
sssbsssssbssssbsbsssbssssssssbbsssssbsbsssbsbsssss

That's the raw data for those that care; s means success, b means blocked, and each line is for a new combat. Summary

Fight 5: 11/50 = 22% blocked
6: 9/46 = 19.6% (ran out of MP due to draining)
7: 19/50 = 38%
8: 19/50 = 38%
9: 12/50 = 24%
10: 10/50 = 20%
11: 11/50 = 22%

Total: 91/346 = 26.5%

I know it's a small sample set, but it's somewhat close to 30%. My main motivation was to check that my characters weren't cursed like they always seemed to be when I rely on spellslinging, so this is good enough for me.
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lostcalpolydude: Hardcore character (abandoned)

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Post by NardoLoopa » Mon May 12, 2008 9:35 am

Besides blocking, we might want to look at another Mercy setting for the NS -- it appears that MP hits go up as you continue to lose to the NS as well.

In BM, most of my 4th round fights end up being all HP hits. Then as I go on to my 9th and 10th bout with the NS I get a break with some MP hits. (obviously this is anecdotal)
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Post by Raccoon » Fri May 16, 2008 4:19 pm

There's a rumor that the NS won't block massage oil. Seems like this would be easily disproven, but I've never used the massage oil against her. Can anyone disprove the rumor?
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Post by NardoLoopa » Fri May 16, 2008 6:24 pm

I've heard several people in /hc and I think I've read at least one ascension post that disagreed with this rumor.

I'll try it this run.
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Post by KujjieKujjieKoo » Fri May 16, 2008 7:47 pm

The NS *can* block massage oil. She blocked two on my crimbo SC BM run, forcing me to farm up another set and inflate turncount an additional 70 turns or do.
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Post by Oxbarn » Fri May 16, 2008 7:55 pm

Dang, I was hoping this was true. Would have been an easy choice to get some in my current S Bad Moon run.

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Post by Manendra » Fri May 16, 2008 8:02 pm

It does seem, from gut feeling (and my faulty memory), that she blocks Massage Oil less often, but I know she does block it.

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Post by salien » Sat May 17, 2008 10:19 pm

That does make me wonder about Saucy Salve; if the cast is 'free', does she still have the ability to block it? And if so, does it then use up your turn (i.e. can she act)?

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Post by NardoLoopa » Sun May 18, 2008 8:44 am

I'll just confirm it once again -- yes she blocks oil. 2x in a row for me.

Fortunately, since I was an BM-AT I just slept through the fight anyway.
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