Divine item data collection thread

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Bazzle
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Divine item data collection thread

Post by Bazzle » Mon Apr 21, 2008 5:48 pm

QuantumNightmare, in another thread wrote:In other news, we need to figure out the distribution of rare vs common divine items. Regular users of that libram should post the order of their summons each day.

Okay.


This parser will take a list of summons as outputted by KoLMafia's Graphical CLI and return output suitable for this thread:

http://cgi2.cs.rpi.edu/~reiffm/cgi-bin/divine.cgi


Letters represent:

Code: Select all

(C)racker
(P)opper
(F)lute
(S)illy string
(N)oisemaker
(B)lowout


Today:

CBNSSBNBBCPBNNSNSNNBBSNSSBSB

And by rare/common:

RccccccccRRccccccccccccccccc

Edit 4/23:

Running tally
This is the probability of a rare, conditional on N rares already being given. The denominator takes into account all exposures. In the string RcccRcc, for example, there would be 1 exposure with 0 rares, 4 with 1 rare, and 2 with 2 rares. The numerator would get 1 added for 0 and 1 rares.

Code: Select all

Probability of rare given N previous rares, as percentage:
0: 50.87  +/-  3.63
1: 28.09  +/-  2.48
2: 17.36  +/-  1.84
3: 9.47   +/-  1.37
4: 5.08   +/-  1.23
5: 2.60   +/-  1.31
6: 2.10   +/-  2.37
7: 5.56   +/- 10.69
8: 0
Last edited by Bazzle on Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:29 pm, edited 24 times in total.

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Pendulass
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Post by Pendulass » Mon Apr 21, 2008 6:28 pm

Here's my summons for today:

CSSSPSNNSSNBNNFSBNSSBCNSBBNSSSNSNSSSSBNNSNSNSSBNSS

which is:
RcccRcccccccccRccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Mon Apr 21, 2008 8:42 pm

QuantumNightmare wrote:Summons (myst class)
Day 1: 14 blowouts, 11 silly string, 11 noisemakers, 3 champagne flutes, 2 champagne poppers, 1 cracker
Rares on turns: 1, 3, 4, 14, 26, 41. 42 summons total.

Day 2: 14 noisemakers, 14 silly string, 10 blowouts, 3 champagne flutes, 1 champagne popper, 0 crackers
Rares on turns: 3, 5, 21, 30, 38. 42 summons total.

Day 3: 14 blowouts, 13 noisemakers, 10 silly string, 3 champagne flutes, 1 champagne popper, 1 cracker
Rares on turns: 1, 5, 8, 12, 21. 42 summons total.

Day 4: 18 blowouts, 17 noisemakers, 10 silly string, 2 champagne flutes, 2 crackers
Rares on turns: 10, 11, 43, 48. 49 summons total.
Tiberius wrote:Summons Myst

22 blowouts, 20 noisemakers, 22 silly string, 0 flutes, 2 poppers, 3 crackers
Rares on turns: 2, 3, 7, 13, 20. 69 summons total

I like the letter code for listing every summon, but for rare/common testing just mentioned how many summons total, and which summons were rare.

bizkut
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Post by bizkut » Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:02 pm

summons: FBNBBBN

Total: 7.
Rares on : 1

Alrik
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Post by Alrik » Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:45 am

Moxie class

SCBBNNSCBBBBNNBPNB
cRcccccRcccccccRcc

Total: 18
Rare: 3

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Post by KujjieKujjieKoo » Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:51 am

Sauceror:
FBSSNBSSBSCNNSSNBB
RcccccccccRccccccc

2 Rare, 16 Common.
7 / 16 Commons as mainstat.

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Pendulass
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Post by Pendulass » Tue Apr 22, 2008 10:53 am

Sauceror:
NFSBNNSPBNSSNBNB
cRcccccRcccccccc

16 Total
2 Rare

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Manendra
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Post by Manendra » Tue Apr 22, 2008 4:07 pm

TT:

SBBPSCSBBP

3/10 rare

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Post by Brulak » Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:31 am

Seal Clubber:

PSNCSBPSBSBNNSNSN

3 rare
14 commons

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Post by Pendulass » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:13 am

NSFBSNFBBFNSCNNBBNNNBN
ccRcccRccRccRccccccccc

4/22

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Post by KujjieKujjieKoo » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:54 am

Disco Bandit:
SNNPBPN

2 Rare
5 Commons

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Post by Alrik » Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:35 am

Moxie class
SBFSBSSFFNNNFNSBSN
ccRccccRRcccRccccc

4 / 18

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Manendra
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Post by Manendra » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:33 pm

CBNSSNCSSBCNFSB

4/15

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:07 pm

Myst Class: FSFSBNBSSNBBPNS

Rares on turns: 1, 3, 13 (out of 15)

(I had meant to list the summon # where rares appear, not just to list the # of rares altogether)

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Post by Bazzle » Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:22 pm

I'm entering this into a spreadsheet to keep track of things. The easiest format for me is Q's suggestion of rares on turns X, Y, Z. Either that or the RccRcc business is fine.

I'll edit a running tally of the probabilities into the top post shortly and keep track of it as more info is added.

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Post by Bazzle » Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:40 pm

CBNBBNNSFBNNSSSSSSF

Rares, 1,9,19
19 attempts

salien
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Re: Divine item data collection thread

Post by salien » Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:51 pm

Bazzle wrote:Running tally
This is the probability of a rare, conditional on N rares already being given. The denominator takes into account all exposures. In the string RcccRcc, for example, there would be 1 exposure with 0 rares, 4 with 1 rare, and 2 with 2 rares. The numerator would get 1 added for 0 and 1 rares.

Code: Select all

Probability of rare given N previous rares, as percentage:
0: 42.86
1: 22.97
2: 12.07
3: 7.48
4: 7.55
5: 1.14
6: 0


I think probability of a rare given N previous casts should also be examined; it certainly seems that early rares are more likely than late ones, but your chances could be reduced by rares gotten or all casts just as easily. Admittedly, that record so far already looks good for starting at 50% at halving each time you get a rare.

And all I can contribute is theories since I'm in BM, sigh.

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Post by Pendulass » Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:38 pm

PBSSBBBBBBBNBNS (that's **** of blowouts)
Rcccccccccccccc

Rare on 1

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Post by Alrik » Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:42 pm

PNSSBNNBSFBPBNSBBB

RccccccccRcRcccccc

Rares on 1, 10, 12
18 total

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Thu Apr 24, 2008 12:28 am

nbFPbbnnbPnbbsn

Rares on turns: 3,4,10 out of 15

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Post by Tzabor » Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:41 am

NNNCC BNNNN BNNBN NBSSB FNBBN NBNFC NSNBS B



Rares on turns 4,5,21,29,30 out of 36.


CSBBB BBCSB SBBSB BNCBS SSNBN NNBBN SSNNS S3B

Rares on turns 1, 8, 18 of 38
Last edited by Tzabor on Fri Apr 25, 2008 5:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Brulak » Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:46 am

NNFCB SBBNN CSSBN SNN

rares at 3, 4, 11 (out of 18)

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Post by Bazzle » Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:34 pm

BPCNC NBBNB SCSBS BNBSS

2,3,5,12 of 20

Top post updated.

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Thu Apr 24, 2008 11:37 pm

CPPbFnsnsbsbbnnbsnnbnbsbb

Rares on 1,2,3,5 (out of 25)

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Post by Alrik » Thu Apr 24, 2008 11:57 pm

CSFNSSNSPNNBNNBBFBPN

Rares on 1, 3, 9, 17, 19
Total: 20

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Post by Brulak » Fri Apr 25, 2008 4:21 am

BSPSC NCBSS NSFBB N

4/16 rares on 3, 5, 7, 13

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Post by Pendulass » Fri Apr 25, 2008 10:14 am

nbsFCbssnnsbnbFbbssnb

Rares: 4,5,15

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Post by Bazzle » Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:29 am

FNNSB SBNBS NNSCB CBNSN CSBSN

1, 14, 16, 21 of 25

Top post updated.

Still early, but I wonder if we're not converging to 44/22/11/etc.?

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Post by Kevlar » Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:23 pm

bnbFnsPsPnbsbsnFssbn

4, 7, 9, 16

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:36 pm

Can you post the sample size for every data point? I wonder if the first point only seems like 44% and not 50% due to the small sample size (more failures at higher counts = more samples at those counts).

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Post by macman104 » Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:42 pm

Also, does it affect anything if 90% of the people post results of only of say 5 summons a day? Does that skew anything? I lack the math skills to draw these conclusions (die math, die!), so I just come up with these questions to ask instead :)

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:51 pm

Nope. Small sample sizes are fine, even though most people on here are posting larger samples. Because of the way bazzle is looking at the data (same way the navel ring was figured out), it doesn't matter how many summons people give.

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Post by Bazzle » Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:59 pm

Code: Select all

0: 31/68
1: 29/135
2: 26/190
3: 14/187
4: 6/91
5: 1/95
6: 0/1

Probably is a small sample size issue on the first rare. Rares on the very first summon are 14/26, which is some more evidence in favor of 50%.

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Post by csemaj » Fri Apr 25, 2008 4:58 pm

To me, this is starting to look like
0: 50%
1: 25%
2: 12.5%
3: 6.75%

There doesn't seem to be enough data for people summoning enough rares to get a large enough sample size after that, but odds seem to drop by half every rare you get.

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Post by Pendulass » Sat Apr 26, 2008 1:16 am

CnPbbsbFn

Rare: 1,3,8

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Post by Alrik » Sat Apr 26, 2008 2:14 am

FssbsCPbsbbb

3 out of 12.

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Post by Brulak » Sat Apr 26, 2008 10:38 am

PBFSN BSPNB SN

3 out of 12, on 1, 3, 8.

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Post by Bazzle » Sat Apr 26, 2008 2:08 pm

BSCBN NSNPS SSBNB PSSBN BSBNN SSBNC S

3,9,16,30 of 31

Top post updated.

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Sat Apr 26, 2008 5:38 pm

CbFnbnPssnbbsbnbnssnss

Rares on turns: 1,3,7 (out of 22)

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Post by Brulak » Sun Apr 27, 2008 12:43 pm

FBSPC NBPNN SN

4 out of 12, on 1, 4, 5, 8

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Post by Alrik » Sun Apr 27, 2008 5:55 pm

nsbC sbP bC bP bssbnbs

4 out of 18.

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Post by Alrik » Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:06 pm

bnC sbbb

1 of 7.

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Post by Bazzle » Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:46 pm

NFSPB CNBSF NSSBB BNBNS BSNBS NSSBN

2, 4, 6, 10 of 30

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:24 pm

CFPsb snsbs FCsbb bbnss nbbPb ssssn snsns sbPsn nsnb

Rares on turns: 1,2,3,10,11,24,38

7 rares!

New day:

FFnnP sssbs nsbns sssnn nbbCs nbnss sbsbs nnssb sbbsn nnbnb ssbss snnns nn

Rares on turns: 1,2,5,23

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Post by KujjieKujjieKoo » Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:24 am

Psnnsnnbbbs

1 Rare (Turn 1)

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Post by Alrik » Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:50 am

F ssbC F sb

3 rares, 8 total.

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Post by KujjieKujjieKoo » Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:50 am

FCnbs nbP

3 Rares: 1, 2, 8

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Post by Brulak » Mon Apr 28, 2008 12:36 pm

FnbCs nnssn Pssbs nns

3 out of 18, rares on 1, 4, 11

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Pendulass
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Post by Pendulass » Mon Apr 28, 2008 2:31 pm

PsbPsbbFnnbbnnnbsbnPbbsFnbbsbbnnsssbnnbssbbnbbsbnnbsbb

Rares:1,4,8,20,24

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Post by Bazzle » Mon Apr 28, 2008 4:23 pm

BCNBC BSBSN NBSBS SNNNB BPNPN SPSBB B

2,5,22,24,26 of 31

Top post updated.

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Post by Pendulass » Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:12 am

bbnCP nbbss ssssb nsbbC nbb

rares: 4,5,20

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Post by Brulak » Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:26 am

FFBBF BPNNS NNBNN SSCNS NBBNF SBSNS SBS

6 out of 33
rares on: 1, 2, 5, 7, 18, 25

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Post by Alrik » Tue Apr 29, 2008 10:28 am

P sP nnnC nF b

4 rares, 10 total

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Post by Bazzle » Wed Apr 30, 2008 4:18 pm

SBPPB BNBNB FNNNC SNBNC NNSBS SNBSS SBN

3,4,11,15,20 of 33

I've updated the top post and added 95% confidence intervals for the running estimates.

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Post by Alrik » Wed Apr 30, 2008 8:04 pm

snsbbC nsnnsbC

2 rares, 13 total.

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Post by Pendulass » Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:35 pm

CCbFs sssss nsssb bbsnn bsbbn bbnsn snnsn bbsns snFnn snbsn sbbbs nn

Rares: 1,2,4,43

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Thu May 01, 2008 10:04 am

FPnFn bsCbb nbbbF nsbbn nbsbb s

Rares on: 1,2,4,15 (out of 26)

Alrik
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Post by Alrik » Thu May 01, 2008 5:01 pm

C bbF bbsbbbsnbC

3 rares, 14 total

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Post by Bazzle » Thu May 01, 2008 7:13 pm

SBFBS FBBPN BNNNN BBSNN SNNNN BNSNS S

3,5,9 of 31

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Pendulass
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Post by Pendulass » Thu May 01, 2008 10:57 pm

Oxy DB Now:

PFPFb ss

Rares: 1,2,3,4
Last edited by Pendulass on Fri May 02, 2008 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

NitraMo

Post by NitraMo » Fri May 02, 2008 1:25 am

ssFbF Cnbbn sbsbs nsFsP snbss bnbsn

Rares: 3,5,6,18,20 (of 30)

Alrik
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Post by Alrik » Fri May 02, 2008 11:27 am

sF F bF F ssbF snns

5 rares, 14 total.

Odd day.

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Fri May 02, 2008 12:38 pm

FbPPs b

Rares on turns 1,3,4 (out of 6)

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NotJim
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Post by NotJim » Fri May 02, 2008 11:40 pm

bPsbFnnnssnFnbnbnnbcbbn

Rares on summons 2, 5 and 13

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NitraMo
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Post by NitraMo » Sat May 03, 2008 10:27 am

Fssbs bssbs sCnns ssbsF

Rares: 1, 12, 20 (of 20)

(Also for some strange reason my account was deleted)
#267484

Alrik
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Post by Alrik » Sat May 03, 2008 1:05 pm

nssF P bnnssP

Rares: 3
Total: 11

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Sat May 03, 2008 3:49 pm

PnCnn Fsbss

Rares on 1,3,6 (out of 10)

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Post by Bazzle » Sat May 03, 2008 5:41 pm

FBSNP BSNPN NBPSN SSSSN SNBNN

1,5,9,13 of 25

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Post by greycat » Sat May 03, 2008 10:30 pm

CnCns bsbss bbPnb ssnPs

rares: 1, 3, 13, 19 (4 of 20)

Alrik
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Post by Alrik » Sun May 04, 2008 1:37 am

C nsbnF nssP sbC n

Rares: 4
Total: 14

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