Mayfly spading (Data needed on stun chances)

This is where you spade, shovel and sickle. Or is it reap?
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GoldS
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Mayfly spading (Data needed on stun chances)

Post by GoldS » Wed May 14, 2008 12:01 am

This is what I have so far on stun chances. If you have a mayfly necklace, go fight some gremlins and see how often the flies stun in a 30 round period. You may need to heal the gremlins with bang potions.

Please, only give data if you've fully powered up your necklace. Make sure to note the cast number.

1: 5/150 ( 3.3%)
2: 16/150 (10.6%)
3: 19/150 (12.6%)
4: 32/150 (21.3%)
5: 32/150 (21.3%)
6: 40/150 (26.6%)
7: 37/150 (24.6%)
8: 63/150 (42.0%)
9: 70/150 (46.6%)
10: 72/150 (48.0%)
11: 70/150 (46.6%)
12: 91/150 (60.6%)
13: 97/150 (64.6%)
14: 100/150 (66.6%)
15: 104/150 (69.3%)
16: 116/150 (77.3%)
17: 122/150 (81.3%)
18: 131/150 (87.3%)
19: 122/150 (81.3%)
20: 127/150 (84.6%)
21: 122/150 (81.3%)
22: 112/150 (74.6%)
23: 104/150 (69.3%)
24: 83/150 (55.3%)
25: 67/150 (44.6%)
26: 61/150 (40.6%)
27: 38/150 (25.3%)
28: 25/150 (16.6%)
29: 20/150 (13.3%)
30: 0/150 (0.0% )

Original post below in small font.

Oh boy, here we go...

+Meat effect
Vs Fluffy Bunny
Meat drop bonus: +100%

Without flies: 14-18
14, 16, 18

3
---
Range: 14
14

4
---
Range: 16-18
16, 18

5
---
Range: 14-18
14, 18

6
---
Range: 15-20
15, 17, 19, 20

7
---
Range: 18-21
18, 19, 20, 21

8
---
Range: 16-22
16, 17, 20, 22

9
---
Range: 18-24
18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24

10
---
Range: 19-26
19, 22, 23, 25, 26

11
---
Range: 21-24
21, 24

Conclusion: This is definitely not adding a straight +meat bonus, but I think we knew that already.
Last edited by GoldS on Wed May 28, 2008 9:53 pm, edited 7 times in total.

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Re: Mayfly spading.

Post by QuantumNightmare » Wed May 14, 2008 12:34 am

GoldS wrote:9
---
Range: 18-24
18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24
Conclusion: This is definitely not adding a straight +meat bonus, but I think we knew that already.
That's an amazing result - there's no way that a consistent +% meat can give those meat drops. Either the strength varies depending on the adjective describing summons (decent, huge, massive) or based on some other source of randomness, or this calculates meat drops in an entirely new way. A few more days of this bunny spading would be useful, until we figure out what is going on.

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Post by Prestige » Wed May 14, 2008 7:30 pm

I have a feeling actual swarm size is some unknown value that neither the adjective nor the picture describe at full resolution.

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Post by GoldS » Thu May 15, 2008 1:43 am

Updated...should I try observing the adjective instead of the mayfly count?

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Thu May 15, 2008 2:30 pm

Something is odd here. Breaking it down by adjectives would help, as well as breaking it down by adjective/number. So 9M and 9H would be listed separately.

Really, we're just shooting in the dark until a pattern appears. Try to list meat drops as they appear, with the number and adjective attached.

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Post by lostcalpolydude » Thu May 15, 2008 2:40 pm

There's at least some good news. Monsters that don't drop items can't give you the +item result anymore.

Edit: Random note that data above this post was taken without +10% items and +10% meat on the accessory, and data below this post has those enchantments on the accessory.
Last edited by lostcalpolydude on Thu May 15, 2008 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by GoldS » Thu May 15, 2008 11:29 pm

New data collecting method (yay)
(T): Tiny
(S): Small
(D): Decent-sized
(B): Big
(H): Huge
(M): Massive

Data
4S: 18 (18)
5S: 16 (16)
6D: 15-17 (15, 17)
7D: 16 (16)
8B: 17 (17)
9H: 18-21 (18, 19, 21)
10M: 19-25 (19, 20, 23, 25)

(ADJECTIVES UNKNOWN)
4: 16-18 (16, 18)
5: 14-18 (14, 18)
6: 15-20 (15, 17, 19, 20)
7: 18-21 (18, 19, 20, 21)
8: 16-22 (16, 17, 20, 22)
9: 18-24 (18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24)
10: 19-26 (19, 22, 23, 25, 26)
11: 21-24 (21, 24)

Ranges, by mayfly count
4: 16-18 (16, 18)
5: 14-18 (14, 16, 18)
6: 15-20 (15, 17, 19, 20)
7: 16-21 (16, 18, 19, 20, 21)
8: 16-22 (16, 17, 20, 22)
9: 18-24 (18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24)
10: 19-26 (19, 20, 22, 23, 25, 26)
11: 21-24 (21, 24)

Ranges, by adjective
S: 16-18 (16, 18)
D: 15-17 (15, 16, 17)
B: 17 (17)
H: 18-21 (18, 19, 21)
M: 19-25 (19, 20, 23, 25)

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Post by Hellion » Fri May 16, 2008 3:17 pm

Prestige wrote:I have a feeling actual swarm size is some unknown value that neither the adjective nor the picture describe at full resolution.


You would be correct.

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Post by GoldS » Fri May 16, 2008 3:24 pm

...wahh.

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Fri May 16, 2008 3:32 pm

Well, next analysis. After 4-5 days, the swarm seems to build in size at the same rate (data posted by golds? on the wiki). So...let's break this down into 29 individual summons, and assume they all work at different rates. Instead of breaking it down by adjective or mayfly count, break it down by what summon # it is, on any given day after the 4th.

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Post by lostcalpolydude » Fri May 16, 2008 4:00 pm

QuantumNightmare wrote:Well, next analysis. After 4-5 days, the swarm seems to build in size at the same rate (data posted by golds? on the wiki). So...let's break this down into 29 individual summons, and assume they all work at different rates. Instead of breaking it down by adjective or mayfly count, break it down by what summon # it is, on any given day after the 4th.
You mean 30 summons, since that got fixed.
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Post by GoldS » Fri May 16, 2008 11:23 pm

I'm trying to think of a monster that has a narrow, fully spaded meat range that doesn't drop ANY items (fluffy bunny has the bunny liver problem), and all I could think of was wolfman in the spooky forest. If I go after that monster, I would hopefully be able to get a data point for each summon a day. Should I go ahead and do that?

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Post by lostcalpolydude » Fri May 16, 2008 11:45 pm

Based on a google search of the wiki for "Item drops: none", the spooky forest is the only place that will work (and there are two monsters there that could be used). Ignoring things like the monster in the Daily Dungeon that you can't fight 30 times.
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Post by GoldS » Sat May 17, 2008 12:11 am

Wolfman
Base meat bonus: +100%
Meat range without mayflies: 16-24

16 x 2, 18 x 7, 20 x 8, 22 x 7, 24 x 4

Meat range without meat drop bonus: 8-12

Here's an ASCII table on the wolfman data that lists the summon number, the number of flies summoned, and the adjective used to describe the swarm.

Code: Select all

|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1(4S)  2(5S)  3(6S)  4(6D)  5(6D)  6(7D)  7(7D)  8(7B)  9(8B) 10(8B) |
|                                                                      |
|16-20  16-23  21-25  19-24  22     20-27  18-23  19-24  19-24  20-30  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|11(8B) 12(9H) 13(9H) 14(9H) 15(9H) 16(10M)17(10M)18(10M)19(10M)20(11M)|
|                                                                      |
|22-28  20-26  21-29  21-29  24-33  28-33  22-31  23-29  23-29  24-33  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|21(10M)22(10M)23(9H) 24(9H) 25(8B) 26(7B) 27(7D) 28(6D) 29(5S) 30(3T) |
|                                                                      |
|29-31  22-30  27-29  23-31  20-30  24-28  25-27  17-22  16-23  18-22  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|


Raw data:
1: 16 x 2, 18 x 1, 20 x 1
2: 16 x 2, 18 x 1, 23 x 1
3: 21 x 2, 25 x 2
4: 19 x 1, 22 x 2, 24 x 1
5: 22 x 4
6: 20 x 1, 23 x 1, 25 x 1, 27 x 1
7: 18 x 1, 23 x 3
8: 19 x 2, 24 x 2
9: 19 x 1, 22 x 1, 24 x 2
10: 20 x 1, 25 x 2, 30 x 1
11: 22 x 1, 25 x 2, 28 x 1
12: 20 x 2, 23 x 1, 26 x 1
13: 21 x 1, 23 x 1, 26 x 1, 29 x 1
14: 21 x 2, 24 x 1, 29 x 1
15: 24 x 1, 30 x 2, 33 x 1
16: 28 x 1, 30 x 2, 33 x 1
17: 22 x 1, 25 x 1, 28 x 1, 31 x 1
18: 23 x 2, 26 x 1, 29 x 1
19: 23 x 1, 26 x 1, 29 x 2
20: 24 x 1, 27 x 1, 33 x 2
21: 29 x 2, 31 x 2
22: 22 x 1, 28 x 2, 30 x 1
23: 27 x 2, 29 x 2
24: 23 x 1, 26 x 2, 31 x 1
25: 20 x 1, 27 x 1, 30 x 2
26: 24 x 2, 26 x 1, 28 x 1
27: 25 x 3, 27 x 1
28: 17 x 1, 19 x 1, 22 x 2
29: 16 x 1, 18 x 1, 21 x 1, 23 x 1
30: 18 x 1, 20 x 2, 22 x 1
Last edited by GoldS on Tue May 20, 2008 12:54 am, edited 4 times in total.

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Post by Prestige » Sat May 17, 2008 3:20 am

Yeah, the base meat drop of wolfman is listed as 10-13 on its wiki page, but 8-12 on the Spooky Forest page. It seems there are many cases of monsters on the wiki where this disagreement occurs, for example the Knob Goblin Mutants which I was looking at a few days ago.

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Post by Ceirdwyn » Sat May 17, 2008 1:37 pm

Note: Giant Sandworms also don't drop any items

The problem is that their base meat drop rate isn't fully spaded yet (and isn't really narrow), but their advantage is that you can fight them every single adv as long as you have drum machines...

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Post by mikelj » Sun May 18, 2008 12:43 pm

Hey guys, quantumnightmare told me to post this data here so here it goes.

I don't have any +meat bonuses. all 28 turns were whacking bunnies at the warren. I clumsily used the first turns not paying attention, but here's 3-20.

Code: Select all

03  6S  7 I 
04  6D 10 M
05  6D  9 I G
06  7D 11 M
07  7D  9 I
08  7B  8 I G
09  8B  8 I G
10  8B 12 M G
11  8B 11 M
12  9H 13 M G
13  9H  7 I G
14  9H  7 I
15  9H  7 I G
16 10M  8 I G
17 10M  9 I G
18 10M 18 M G
19 10M 14 M G
20 11M  8 I G
21 10M 18 M G
22 10M  8 I G
23  9H 12 M G
24  9H 13 M G
25  8B 12 M
26  8B  7 I
27  7D  9 I
28  6D  8 I
29  5S  7 I
30  3T  8 M


Also, there is a strange thing that I posted on the main KoL forums. The bunnies were getting the item drop message but the only thing they drop is the bunny liver the very first time you fight one, so it shouldn't be drawing any item drop messages, but as you can see I got about half item drops. Which sucks big time from a +meat standpoint.

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Post by lostcalpolydude » Sun May 18, 2008 2:27 pm

mikelj wrote:Also, there is a strange thing that I posted on the main KoL forums. The bunnies were getting the item drop message but the only thing they drop is the bunny liver the very first time you fight one, so it shouldn't be drawing any item drop messages, but as you can see I got about half item drops. Which sucks big time from a +meat standpoint.

Yeah, GoldS already complained about that. There's still two monsters in the Spooky Forest that have no item drops that he is using (pick one to work with), but if you have Olfaction then you could do the spading on that more easily than he can.
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Post by GoldS » Mon May 19, 2008 12:00 am

I've found so far that the actual range for the wolfman is 8-12. The maximum and minimum may be higher, but at least it explains the low values of 16 that are popping up with +100% meat drops AND the fly effect.

If I had to guess, I'd say that on the 1st and 30th summons, there's a +5% meat bonus, and 2, 3, and 29 are around a +10% meat bonus.

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Post by GoldS » Mon May 19, 2008 1:11 am

Even with this limited data set, I might have figured out how it works.

The wolfman's meat range is 8-12, so only 5 meat data points are possible. I've come up with the following table using the data I've found so far.

Note that all of these data points are with the +100% meat bonus.

Code: Select all

1:  16 18 20 -- --  5%
2:  16 18 -- -- -- 10%
3:  -- -- 21 -- 25 15%
4:  -- 19 22 24 -- 20%
5:  -- -- 22 -- -- 25%
6:  -- 20 23 25 27 30%
7:  18 -- 23 -- -- 35%
8:  19 -- 24 -- -- 40%
9:  19 22 24 -- -- 45%
10: 20 -- 25 -- 30 50%
11: -- 22 25 28 -- 55%
12: 20 23 26 -- -- 60%
13: 21 23 26 29 -- 65%
14: 21 24 -- 29 -- 70%
15: -- 24 -- 30 33 75%
16: -- -- 28 30 33 80%
17: 22 25 28 31 -- 85%
18: 23 26 29 -- -- 90%
19: 23 26 29 -- -- 95%
20: 24 27 -- 33 --100%
21: -- -- 29 31 -- 90%
22: 22 -- 28 30 -- 80%
23: -- -- 27 29 -- 70%
24: -- 23 26 -- 31 60%
25: 20 -- -- 27 30 50%
26: -- -- 24 26 28 40%
27: -- -- -- 25 27 30%
28: 17 19 22 -- -- 20%
29: 16 18 21 23 -- 10%
30: -- 18 20 22 --  5%
Last edited by GoldS on Wed May 21, 2008 2:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by ClockworkHouse » Mon May 19, 2008 2:53 pm

This is some raw data using the Mayflies against the Wolfman. My base meat drop is only the 10% intrinsic to the necklace itself.

Code: Select all

Summon    |01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Fly Count | 4  5  6  6  6  7  7  7  8  8  8  9  9  9  9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10  9  9  8  7  7  6  5  3
Adjective | S  S  S  D  D  D  D  B  B  B  B  H  H  H  H  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  H  H  B  B  D  D  S  T
Combat    | -  -  -  -  -  -  -  G  G  -  -  -  G  G  G  -  G  G  G  G  G  G  -  G  -  G  G  -  -  -
Post-Comb | M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M
Meat Drop |11 13 12 13 14 14 15 18 13 17 19 15 17 16 14 15 17 24 24 16 22 17 18 13 14 13 14 13 10  9


The first line is the summon number. The second is the number of flies in the graphic. The third is the adjective used to describe the swarm. The "combat" line describes any actions taken by the swarm during combat, with "G" meaning gag. "Post-comb" is the post-combat message; in this case, it's all meat drops.

So far as I can tell, all of the data is consistent with GoldS's proposed % drop progression.

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Post by alacrity » Mon May 19, 2008 4:47 pm

GoldS wrote:If I did the math right, that's an average of a 50.166% bonus. That plus the intrinsic +10% meat means 60.166%.


How does this data relate to the (jick claimed) "gets stronger each day" aspect of the item?

Given the nature of the mechanic, I'm not sure "average" is a very useful metric for anyone but farmers, who will look at the above data and decide that this item is very useless, indeed.

I think TPTB really screwed the pooch on this one.

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Post by lostcalpolydude » Mon May 19, 2008 5:02 pm

Jick said it gets stronger through the first four days and then levels off. The 50% average (higher if you don't bother with the last couple of summons each day) is a lot better than an ascot. If you are item farming instead, then you care more about the +item effects, and those haven't been spaded. It's a bit early to call this item useless.
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Post by ClockworkHouse » Mon May 19, 2008 5:20 pm

Given the nature of the mechanic, I'm not sure "average" is a very useful metric for anyone but farmers, who will look at the above data and decide that this item is very useless, indeed.


I might not be understanding the mayflies perfectly, but they look a lot better when you put it like this: for your third through twenty-eighth uses, the mayfly bait can be better than a natty blue ascot. For your fourth through twenty-eighth uses, the bait can be better than an incredibly dense meat gem.

Granted, you don't always get the +meat messages after combat. So far as I know, the +item% hasn't been fully spaded yet, but I suspect that it will work in a similar fashion to the +meat%. In addition to the various other uses for the mayflies (being able to skip monsters in certain areas without using an adventure, acquisition of additional meat/items in some areas, etc.), I don't think it's fair to dismiss the mayflies as useless.

Edit: Ninja'd.

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Post by Seal Lubber » Tue May 20, 2008 1:27 am

Just got one of these and don't mind spending a few turns spading, anything in particular that those in the know want done?

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Post by GoldS » Tue May 20, 2008 11:51 pm

Here's some damage data for each cast. The upper levels (everything in the 10-11 fly range) are lacking in data because the mayflies stun the monster most of the time.

Code: Select all

|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1(4S)  2(5S)  3(6S)  4(6D)  5(6D)  6(7D)  7(7D)  8(7B)  9(8B) 10(8B) |
|                                                                      |
|   5    6-8    8-11  11-15  13-18  16-21  18-24  21-28  23-31  25-34  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|11(8B) 12(9H) 13(9H) 14(9H) 15(9H) 16(10M)17(10M)18(10M)19(10M)20(11M)|
|                                                                      |
|28-37  30-40  32-43  35-46  37-48  39-52  42-54  44-57  46-61  48-59  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|21(10M)22(10M)23(9H) 24(9H) 25(8B) 26(7B) 27(7D) 28(6D) 29(5S) 30(3T) |
|                                                                      |
|44-57  39-52  35-46  30-40  25-34  21-28  16-21  11-15   6-8      5   |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|


From what I see though, they follow a similar pattern to what mayflies do with the meat drop bonus: Increasing to cast 20 by some constant value Y, then decreasing by 2Y until it's back where it started.

Possible pattern? Differences in the min and max values for each summon.

Code: Select all

0 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9 
9 - 10- 11- 11- 11- 12- 12- 13- 15- ??
12- 12- 11- 10-  9-  7- 5  - 4-  2- 0

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Post by GoldS » Sat May 24, 2008 3:11 am

I'm stumped on trying to come up with a formula for the attacks, even using the most reliable set of numbers (The first 10 summons).

Anyway, we need more data on stunning. Yeah.

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Post by GoldS » Wed May 28, 2008 11:29 pm

Hey, item drop stuff. Yay. Prelminary of course, but we can guess what it does from the way the meat bonus works.

Item drop bonus: -33%
Monster: Topiary Golem
Base item drop rate: 60.0%
Expected item drop rate without flies: 40.2%

[X = Map did not drop, O = Map dropped]
Day 1
O O X O X X O O O O
X O X X O O O O O O
X O O X O X X X X X

Day 2
X O X X O O O X X X
X O O O O O O X O O
X O O X X O X X X X

Day 3
X O X X X X O O X X
O O O O O X O O O O
O X X X X X X X O X

Day 4
O O X O X X O O X O
O X O O O O O X O O
O O O X O X X X O X

Day 5
O X O X O X X X X O
O O O O O O O X X O
X X O O O O X O X X

Day 6
X O X O O X X X O X
O X X X X O X O O O
O O X X X X X X X X

Day 7
O X X X O O X O O O
O O O O O O X O O O
O O X X O O O O X O


Expected from data (Modeled on meat bonus results)
[X = Map can fail to drop, O = Map always drops. Bold is confirmed.]
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X O
X X X X X X X X X X
Last edited by GoldS on Tue Jun 03, 2008 11:18 pm, edited 7 times in total.

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Post by GoldS » Thu May 29, 2008 11:09 am

I think I've discovered an important mechanic in the way the mayfly swarm calculates things.

There is a variable that seems present in most of the formulas: the mayfly variable. I'll call it MV for now. MV is dependent on the total number of times that mayfly swarm has been cast. From what I've seen in the number of flies that have popped up, the formula for MV is X / 20, where X is the number of times that the skill has been cast. It maxes out at 5.

As an example, here's the meat drop bonus formula using the MV variable:
MV * X - max(0, ((X - 20) * (3 * MV))).

MV is also used with the cast number to determine how many flies are in a swarm and what adjective is used for the swarm.

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Post by salien » Thu May 29, 2008 11:58 pm

Just to clarify understanding of that formula, the X used in MV is number of summons this ascension, whereas the X in the meat bonus formula is number of summons that day, right? Might want to use different variables for the two, say A for this ascension, D for this day. So, MV = A/20 (Floored? Ceiled? Left as non-integer? Should be easy to figure out now), and meat bonus is MV*D - max(0, ((D-20)*3*MV))). In that case, the very first cast of an ascension would have a bonus of .05%, the 10th a bonus of 5%, 20th 20%, 30th 0%. Assuming you used it 30 times day 1, the first on day 2 would give 1.55%, 10th 20%, 20th 50%, 30th 0%. Actually... That can't be quite right, the 30th cast would always be 0%. Maybe there's an exception in the formula for that cast, since it doesn't follow the normal progression. Actually, to get it to fit the observed 5% on the 30th cast once MV is maxed, maybe this works better:

MV*(X-min(3*max(0, X-20), 29)

That doesn't change anything for the first 29 casts, but means the 30th cast always gives a bonus of MV. (So 1.5% day 1, 3% day 2, 4.5% day 3, and 5% thereafter.) Would require some more work to confirm that for days 1 through 3, though.

Either way, this should make it easy to confirm the sleazy back alley effect; probably only affects A but not D, maybe adds an extra point to it every time?

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Post by GoldS » Tue Jun 03, 2008 8:05 am

The 5% effect for the 30th summon was just a guess. It might not add anything. Which would be odd, but it would give the mayfly swarm a nice "average" of 50%.

Melon has already spaded the alley effect. The effect stopped after 50 times. It adds another, uh, EXP point to the mayfly swarm after the battle.

By the way, does anyone know when the mayfly swarm gains experience? Is it after it's summoned or when you kill the monster you're fighting? It should be easy to find out for someone that hasn't used a mayfly in their current ascension...summon the mayflies and run away the next turn. If all of the summons have 3 flies, it's at the end of the battle.

Here are some predictions on how the mayfly value effects the adjective and number of flies. They seem mostly correct based on the data I saw on the wiki.

Code: Select all

Predicted:
3:   0.00 <= MV <= 1.00
4:   1.00 <  MV <= 6.00
5:   6.00 <  MV <= 15.00
6:  15.00 <  MV <= 30.00
7:  30.00 <  MV <= 45.00
8:  45.00 <  MV <= 60.00
9:  60.00 <  MV <= 79.00
10: 79.00 <  MV < 100.00
11:100.00 =  MV

Predicted:
T:  0.00 <= MV <= 5.00
S:  5.00 <  MV <= 20.00
D: 20.00 <  MV <= 40.00
B: 40.00 <  MV <= 60.00
H: 60.00 <  MV <= 80.00
M: 80.00 <  MV <= 100.00

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Post by salien » Tue Jun 03, 2008 3:11 pm

That table doesn't seem to make sense, if MV is just total casts this ascension capped at 100, or your previous definition of total casts divided by 20 capped at 5, since the image number and adjective change throghout the day even when growth is maxed. For those tables, do you actually mean MV = (A/20) * (D-3*max(0, D-20)), with A capped at 100 and D varying from 1 to 30? (That formula assumes the first defintiion was correct and cast 30 does indeed have no effect; which just means save it for stuff like the free runaways...) That might be a more useful definition of MV in general; at that point the meat bonus is just MV. That definition of MV also makes your tables fit the observed flies image numbers and adjectives. (At least mostly; depending on how the MV value is rounded, the line between 4 and 5 might be a little off. If MV is floored, though, then 6 does look like the cutoff.)

Also, when you say the alley was already spaded to add 1 "exp", does it only increase A and not D? That's the only thing that would make sense really, and looking at melon's wiki stuff, that seems to be the case.

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Post by GoldS » Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:39 pm

salien wrote:For those tables, do you actually mean MV = (A/20) * (D-3*max(0, D-20)), with A capped at 100 and D varying from 1 to 30? (That formula assumes the first defintiion was correct and cast 30 does indeed have no effect; which just means save it for stuff like the free runaways...) That might be a more useful definition of MV in general; at that point the meat bonus is just MV. That definition of MV also makes your tables fit the observed flies image numbers and adjectives. (At least mostly; depending on how the MV value is rounded, the line between 4 and 5 might be a little off. If MV is floored, though, then 6 does look like the cutoff.)


Yeah, that's what I meant before. Sorry.

salien wrote:Also, when you say the alley was already spaded to add 1 "exp", does it only increase A and not D? That's the only thing that would make sense really, and looking at melon's wiki stuff, that seems to be the case.


Yes, it adds one point to A. D is always independent of A.

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Post by GoldS » Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:51 am

Item drop bonus: -8%
Expected item drop rate without flies: 55.2%

Day 1
X X X O O X O O O X
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O X X X X O

Day 2
O X O O X O O O X O
O O O O O X O O O O
O O O O X O O X O O



Expected from data (Modeled on meat bonus results)
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X O O O O
O O O O X X X X X X

Uhh. Hmm. Looks like I was wrong about the item drop bonus using the same formula as the meat drop bonus.

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Post by salien » Fri Jun 06, 2008 2:38 am

What about if the item drop bonus is half the meat bonus? Like the fairy/leprechaun formula correlation...

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Post by GoldS » Fri Jun 06, 2008 4:31 am

That would make the most sense...

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Post by GoldS » Sat Jun 07, 2008 5:02 pm

Item drop bonus: +40%
Expected item drop rate without flies: 84%

Day 1
X O O O X O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O X O O

Day 2
O O O O X O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O

Day 3
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O X O X O

Day 4
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O X X X

Day 5
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O

Day 6
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O X O O

Day 7
O O X O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O

Day 8
O O O O O x O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O X O

Day 9
O O O O O O O O X O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O X

Expected from data (Modeled on meat bonus results)
X X X X X X X X X O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O X X X X

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Post by DiscoNeckTed » Wed Jun 25, 2008 6:28 pm

Anything new for Hobopolis?
[img]http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/3514/ervs2.jpg[/img]

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Post by GoldS » Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:14 pm

The mayflies have a chance of picking up a hobo nickel after combat. This chance seems to increase with swarm size. Interestingly enough, you can still get the nickel even if you're going after hobo parts.

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Post by alacrity » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:05 am

Even more interestingly, you can still get the nickel if you're not fighting a hobo! See screenshot for amusement.

El Dia De Los Hobo Nickels!

This reveals something about the mayfly bait. Of course, bmaher's comment (in the chat pane of the screen cap) is spot on as well, sadly.

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Post by GoldS » Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:15 pm

I think I'm ready to posit a credible formula for the meat bonus based on new data from the first 30 uses an ascension.

First 30 uses: Vs. Fluffy Bunny
Base meat bonus: +40%
Meat range without mayflies: 9-12 (9, 11, 12)
Meat range without meat drop bonus: 7-9 (7, 8, 9)

Code: Select all

||----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1(3T)  2(3T)  3(3T)  4(4T)  5(4T)  6(4T)  7(4T)  8(4T)  9(4T) 10(4S) |
|                                                                      |
|11-12  11     11     11     9      XX     11     XX     12     10-11  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|11(4S) 12(5S) 13(5S) 14(5S) 15(5S) 16(5S) 17(5S) 18(6S) 19(6S) 20(6S) |
|                                                                      |
|XX     11-13  10     10     XX     12     12     13     10     12     |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|21(6S)22(6S)23(6S) 24(5S) 25(5S) 26(5S) 27(5S) 28(4S) 29(4T) 30(3T)   |
|                                                                      |
|11-14  12     12-13  12     12     13     XX     10     11     11     |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|

1:  -- 11 12  (Formula: +0.0%)
2:  -- 11 --  (Formula: +0.1%)
3:  -- 11 --  (Formula: +0.3%)
4:  -- 11 --  (Formula: +0.6%)
5:  9  -- --  (Formula: +1.0%)
6:  -- -- --  (Formula: +1.5%)
7:  -- 11 --  (Formula: +2.1%)
8:  -- -- --  (Formula: +2.8%)
9:  -- -- 12  (Formula: +3.6%)
10: 10 11 --  (Formula: +4.5%)
11: -- -- --  (Formula: +5.5%)
12: -- 11 13  (Formula: +6.6%)
13: 10 -- --  (Formula: +7.8%)
14: 10 -- --  (Formula: +9.1%)
15: -- -- --  (Formula: +10.5%)
16: -- 12 --  (Formula: +12.0%)
17: -- 12 --  (Formula: +13.6%)
18: -- -- 13  (Formula: +15.3%)
19: 10 -- --  (Formula: +17.1%)
20: -- 12 --  (Formula: +19.0%)
21: 11 12 14  (Formula: +18.0%)
22: -- 12 --  (Formula: +16.8%)
23: -- 12 13  (Formula: +15.4%)
24: -- 12 --  (Formula: +13.8%)
25: -- 12 --  (Formula: +12.0%)
26: -- -- 13  (Formula: +10.0%)
27: -- -- --  (Formula: +7.8%)
28: 10 -- --  (Formula: +5.4%)
29: -- 11 --  (Formula: +2.8%)
30: -- 11 --  (Formula: +0.0%)


Meat bonus formula: (MV * CV).

MV is the "Mayfly Variable": X / 20
X is the amount of Mayfly XP at summon.

CV is the Cast Variable: Y - max(0, (Y - 20) * 3)
Y is the number of times the mayflies have been summoned that day.
Last edited by GoldS on Sun Mar 22, 2009 4:50 am, edited 4 times in total.

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Post by Eleron » Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:59 pm

GoldS wrote:I think I'm ready to posit a credible formula for the meat bonus

/cheer! :DD

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Post by Hellion » Wed Mar 04, 2009 3:16 pm

Previously your definition of the "Mayfly Variable", MV, was X/20 instead of X/25. Going with the X/20 value lets you remove that 1.25x multiplier....

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Post by GoldS » Sun Mar 22, 2009 4:50 am

You're right. Changed.

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Post by GoldS » Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:33 pm

Vs. Frosty:
Item drop bonus: +250% (+35% passive, One Very Clear Eye, Object Detection, Blue Tongue,
Eggs-tra Sensory Perception, Melancholy Burden, Mayfly bait necklace)
Use of the day: 20/30 (11 mayflies)
Mugs dropped: 3
Item drop bonus: >=50%

Vs. Chester:
Item drop bonus: +249% (+35% passive, One Very Clear Eye, Ermine Eyes, Blue Tongue, Eggs-tra Sensory Perception,
Cupcake of Choice, Phat Loot Lyric, mayfly bait necklace,
Aluminum Epsilon of Humility)
Use of the day: 20/30 (11 mayflies)
Mugs dropped: 2
Item drop bonus: <=50%

Max item drop bonus: 50%.

Item drop maximum confirmed!

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