Vivala Effect Frequencies

This is where you spade, shovel and sickle. Or is it reap?
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QuantumNightmare
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Vivala Effect Frequencies

Post by QuantumNightmare » Sat Sep 06, 2008 3:55 pm

Spading of V mask effects, re: spading list.

I ran 432 turns over two days with spookyform while under vole, with a V mask and a shilly. Let all combats go to 30 rounds for ~13226 turns analyzed, and got 6307 criticals over that span.

Here are the effects I received:
2018 bombs
1956 knives
1978 smoke
20 bonus adventures
335 pickpockets

Looks like bombs, knives and smoke effects are all equally likely. Also looks like you can only receive 10 bonus adventures per day, and can only get 1 bonus adventure and 1 pickpocket per combat. However you can receive both a bonus adventure and a pickpocket in the same combat.

I then analyzed the # of criticals between each bonus adventure and pickpocket. I ignored criticals that occured later on in a combat where a pickpocket or bonus adventure already occured, since these two special adventures can't occur more than once.

Out of 20 occurences, bonus adventures happened on average after 6.1 criticals.
Out of 335 occurences, V pickpockets occured on average after 5.99 criticals. 12% of the time I pickpocketed on the first critical, and 4% of the time I pickpockets after 14 or more criticals.
Last edited by QuantumNightmare on Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:12 am, edited 5 times in total.

Hellion
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Post by Hellion » Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:48 pm

Since there are certain things that can happen only once per combat, could you analyze the frequency distribution of the effect that you got on the first critical per combat? I know this will reduce the data points drastically but it should yield a truer estimate of the effect frequencies over the long run.

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QuantumNightmare
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Post by QuantumNightmare » Sun Sep 07, 2008 10:24 am

I updated the top post with a few hundred more turns of data. As well, here's the outcomes from only the first critical hit each combat that bonus adventures cannot be recieved:
35 pickpockets, 123 bombs, 105 knives, 108 smoke. 9.4% special effects.

When only counting the first critical of combats before 10 bonus adventures were received, we get:
3 bonus adventures, 6 pickpockets, 19 bombs, 16 knives, 13 smoke. 15.7% special effects.

That's a lot fewer item drops than I would have expected from the above data.

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Post by QuantumNightmare » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:06 am

More results. I've looked at the occurance rate of all the different effects relative to the number of times they could possibly have occured.

Bonus adventures: 20/122 times, 16.4%
Pickpockets: 335/2007 times, 16.7%
Smoke: 1978 / 6307 times, 31.4%
Bombs: 2018 / 6307 times, 32.0%
Knives: 1956 / 6307 times, 31.0%

This suggests that the bonus adventures and pickpockets are equally likely, and each occurs half as often as the three common effects. This would also mean that bonus adventures and pickpockets occur on average 6 turns apart, which is what I found before.

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Post by Pantsless » Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:26 pm

Sorry to bump an ancient thread, but:

What happens when the player is no longer eligible for the bonus adventure? Does the game roll the bonus adventure and then do nothing? Is it a re-roll? Or is the bonus adventure simply excluded from the possibility list from the get-go?

I'm sure the answer is there in the data but I'm not getting it.
[quote="Serra725"]What did you use for the structural part of the bear?[/quote]

DarthDud
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Re:

Post by DarthDud » Wed Jun 16, 2010 8:28 pm

QuantumNightmare wrote:As well, here's the outcomes from only the first critical hit each combat that bonus adventures cannot be recieved:
35 pickpockets, 123 bombs, 105 knives, 108 smoke. 9.4% special effects.

When only counting the first critical of combats before 10 bonus adventures were received, we get:
3 bonus adventures, 6 pickpockets, 19 bombs, 16 knives, 13 smoke. 15.7% special effects.

That's a lot fewer item drops than I would have expected from the above data.
So I forgot about this thread and did a bunch of spading. I'm not totally done yet, however I was getting some quite different numbers that what QN indicated in much of this thread, and I ran quite a lot of turns.

Anyways, my initial spading looks like the rates are something more like 5% on the adventures, and 10% on the pickpocket. Which actually meshes well with what I quoted above.

Of course, both he and I have very small amounts of data on the adventures, so they're suspect in either case.

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