Lion Oil & Bird Rib

This is where you spade, shovel and sickle. Or is it reap?
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Hoopity
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Lion Oil & Bird Rib

Post by Hoopity » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:46 pm

8/18/09

Oopity
Mainstat 34-43
Before Level 11
+20% items

Lion Oil
5 of 22

Bird Rib
4 of 21
Last edited by Hoopity on Wed Aug 19, 2009 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Wed Aug 19, 2009 1:42 am

8/19/09

Oopity
Mainstat 47-55
Before Level 11
+20% items

Lion Oil
8 of 33

Bird Rib
4 of 29
Last edited by Hoopity on Wed Aug 19, 2009 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

HippoKing
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Post by HippoKing » Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:07 am

One important thing to bear in mind when checking this, it's believed that Lion Oil cannot drop unless you have a Bird Rib in your inventory.

If you started off with neither, that could skew your results somewhat.

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Post by WiseFather » Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:46 am

HippoKing wrote:One important thing to bear in mind when checking this, it's believed that Lion Oil cannot drop unless you have a Bird Rib in your inventory.

If you started off with neither, that could skew your results somewhat.


Ummmm, I know I've had 3-4 lion oils several times before I ever saw a bird rib.

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lostcalpolydude
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Post by lostcalpolydude » Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:23 am

HippoKing wrote:One important thing to bear in mind when checking this, it's believed that Lion Oil cannot drop unless you have a Bird Rib in your inventory.

If you started off with neither, that could skew your results somewhat.

That's how it used to be, before Jick responded to all of the complaining and changed it.
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Post by slackerjack » Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:29 am

HippoKing wrote:One important thing to bear in mind when checking this, it's believed that Lion Oil cannot drop unless you have a Bird Rib in your inventory.

February 18, 2008 - The conditional that prevents the lion oil from dropping before the bird rib has been altered such that it now only applies during your very first run through the game.

I remember this one well, because it didn't work at first, and I started a G-D thread in order to get it fixed.

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Post by KujjieKujjieKoo » Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:31 am

Just for clarity, it might be worth noting above that the rate being spaded is before receiving the quest, and not after.
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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Wed Aug 19, 2009 2:00 pm

Thanks, Kuj.

My intention was to grind whitey's grove up to level 11, then spend time at various checkpoints to find the condition at which the drop rate changes.

My proposal:

- At level 11
- Upon talking to the council
- Upon reading the MacGuffin Diary
- Upon reading "I love me"
- Upon talking to Mr. Alarm


That's a fair bit of grinding, are there any that can be thrown out?

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Post by KujjieKujjieKoo » Wed Aug 19, 2009 3:49 pm

Hoopity wrote:My intention was to grind whitey's grove up to level 11, then spend time at various checkpoints to find the condition at which the drop rate changes.

For the sake of science, it would be nice to know exactly when the item drop rate changes. However, in practical terms, will it ever come up that someone wants to adventure in Whitey's at level 11 before talking to Alarm? I can see the need to adventure there at lower levels, to either fullfill a bounty, or grind out levels in HC / BM... but in all other cases, once hitting level 11, there's so much to do that just determining "Pre-11 / Post-11" rates would probably be sufficient.
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Post by Hoopity » Thu Aug 20, 2009 12:50 am

8/20/09

Oopity
Mainstat 56-62
Before Level 11
+20% items

Lion Oil
5 of 22

Bird Rib
3 of 20

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Post by HippoKing » Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:26 am

slackerjack wrote:
HippoKing wrote:One important thing to bear in mind when checking this, it's believed that Lion Oil cannot drop unless you have a Bird Rib in your inventory.

February 18, 2008 - The conditional that prevents the lion oil from dropping before the bird rib has been altered such that it now only applies during your very first run through the game.

I remember this one well, because it didn't work at first, and I started a G-D thread in order to get it fixed.

It actually happened to me today. I came to this thread to post a correction, turns out you guys beat me to it.

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Post by Hoopity » Fri Aug 21, 2009 10:49 am

8/21/09

Oopity
Mainstat 64-69
Before Level 11
+20% items

Lion Oil
8 of 20

Bird Rib
9 of 20

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Sat Aug 22, 2009 1:32 pm

8/22/09

Oopity
Mainstat 70-74
Before Level 11
+20% items

Lion Oil
4 of 24

Bird Rib
8 of 27

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Fred Nefler
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Post by Fred Nefler » Sat Aug 22, 2009 3:38 pm

Running more +items would be much more efficient. You can run, say, +200% items and still get good data from drop rates as high as 33% (which is higher than most everything in the kingdom). In fact, getting the modified drop rate close to 100% is the best possible thing. You always get more accurate data this way as long as the drops don't become guaranteed. At +20% items you could need 1500 observations to get the level of accuracy that 300 observations will give you at +200%. So, more accurate, less intensive.

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Post by HippoKing » Sat Aug 22, 2009 4:11 pm

Fred Nefler wrote:Running more +items would be much more efficient. You can run, say, +200% items and still get good data from drop rates as high as 33% (which is higher than most everything in the kingdom). In fact, getting the modified drop rate close to 100% is the best possible thing. You always get more accurate data this way as long as the drops don't become guaranteed. At +20% items you could need 1500 observations to get the level of accuracy that 300 observations will give you at +200%. So, more accurate, less intensive.


Can you explain this in slightly more detail? My statistics knowledge is pretty terrible.

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Post by Hoopity » Sat Aug 22, 2009 4:14 pm

I understand, but sadly, the account i'm using is both hardcore and poorly outfitted for 200% items. I figured getting the drop rate as far from 50% as possible was good for accuracy, so I chose the low end.

I'm not looking for a particularly accurate number, but the advice is good if anyone has a multi capable and willing.

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Post by Fred Nefler » Sat Aug 22, 2009 4:23 pm

Hoopity wrote:I understand, but sadly, the account i'm using is both hardcore and poorly outfitted for 200% items. I figured getting the drop rate as far from 50% as possible was good for accuracy, so I chose the low end.

I'm not looking for a particularly accurate number, but the advice is good if anyone has a multi capable and willing.

Nope, more +items is always better, long as the drop rate doesn't hit 100%. And you can use a fairy. The formula for that is accurate, and even if you're wallaby it's not really a problem. Being packrat would be a problem, though. Knob goblin eyedrops is another source of +15%, though I don't know if you'd be earning at least 25 meat a turn on average with them up.

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Post by Hoopity » Sun Aug 23, 2009 1:20 am

8/23/09

Oopity
Mainstat 77-79
Before Level 11
+47% items & 33 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
3 of 9

Bird Rib
1 of 7
Last edited by Hoopity on Sun Aug 23, 2009 1:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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lostcalpolydude
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Post by lostcalpolydude » Sun Aug 23, 2009 1:23 am

You should list your familiar weight separate from any other bonuses, that way the effect of wallaby can properly be added in.
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Post by Hoopity » Mon Aug 24, 2009 2:31 am

8/24/09

Oopity
Mainstat 79-82
Before Level 11
+62% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
15 of 26

Bird Rib
14 of 31

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Tue Aug 25, 2009 1:01 am

8/25/09

Oopity
Mainstat 82-85
Before Level 11
+62% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
12 of 25

Bird Rib
14 of 24

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Wed Aug 26, 2009 2:24 pm

8/26/09

Oopity
Mainstat 86-89
Before Level 11
+62% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
12 of 21

Bird Rib
20 of 29

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Thu Aug 27, 2009 9:36 am

8/27/09

Oopity
Mainstat 89-92
Before Level 11
+62% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
12 of 22

Bird Rib
12 of 25

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Fri Aug 28, 2009 12:09 pm

8/28/09

Oopity
Mainstat 93-97
Before Level 11
+62% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
20 of 30

Bird Rib
15 of 35

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Sat Aug 29, 2009 7:38 pm

8/29/09

Oopity
Mainstat 98-100
Before Level 11
+62% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
14 of 26

Bird Rib
14 of 21

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Mon Aug 31, 2009 1:55 am

8/31/09

Oopity
Mainstat 100-104
Before Level 11
+62% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
16 of 32

Bird Rib
20 of 35


I have hit Level 11!

For this batch of data, my (almost positively wrong) calculations give roughly:

Lion Oil: 21.1%
Bird Rib: 19.2%

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Fred Nefler
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Post by Fred Nefler » Mon Aug 31, 2009 2:48 pm

You requested I take a look at the analysis, so here you go:

A spreadsheet to do it for you. One error you seemed to make was taking the +.8 average pounds wallaby adds, and plug that averaged weight into the item drop formula. Unfortunately, since the item drop formula is non-linear, that doesn't give you the correct value for the average item drop bonus you are seeing. Won't be off by a lot, but it makes a difference.

That's the spreadsheet format I use for all of my item drop spading. Put in the item drop modifiers you are using in the Bonuses sheet, and then record the number of encounters and number of drops on the monster's sheet (and under the correct set of item drop modifiers).

The combined observed rates and standard error are at the top of each monster's sheet. I see I forgot to label what the cells that currently say false is: this tells you if there is a unique integer in the 90% CI for the data. I generally try to collect data until all of those evaluate to True.

And for the curious, you can pretty clearly see from your data so far why more +items is better. Your data at +20% has a standard error of over 3 percentage points, whereas at the +items you've been running lately you've got a standard error of half that with only 50% more encounters (120-ish vs. 180-ish). Moreover, throwing out the +20% data entirely would actually make the overall data more accurate (note that the error margin on the collected data is higher than that of the data at your most recent +items).

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Post by Hoopity » Tue Sep 01, 2009 10:47 am

Thanks!

Yeah, your sheet definitely makes more +items the obvious choice. As far as the wallaby thing goes, I even put a comparison of the two calculation methods in the spreadsheet, so I'm pretty sure I'm using the right number.

Anyways, I'm a little busy for the next week, so I'm not sure how I'm going to continue this project at the moment.

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Post by Hoopity » Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:15 am

9/2/09

Oopity
Level 11
Before Council
+77% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
20 of 31

Bird Rib
13 of 31

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:28 am

9/3/09

Oopity
Level 11
Before Council
+77% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
16 of 36

Bird Rib
17 of 27

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Tue Sep 08, 2009 3:38 pm

9/7/09

Oopity
Level 11
Before Council
+77% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
12 of 31

Bird Rib
8 of 27

jcowley
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Post by jcowley » Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:44 pm

9/9/09 (correct in England AND America! Whee)

Song Man
Level 18
After council, before reading diary.
+191.75% (incl 45lb fairy, no wallaby)

Lion Oil
37 of 70 (52.86%)

Bird Rib
37 of 66 (56.06%)

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Hoopity
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Post by Hoopity » Wed Sep 09, 2009 8:08 pm

9/9/09

Oopity
Level 12
After Council
+77% items & 38 lb fairy (wallaby)

Lion Oil
25 of 44

Bird Rib
26 of 53

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