The Crimbo Casino

This is where you spade, shovel and sickle. Or is it reap?
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Eleron
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The Crimbo Casino

Post by Eleron » Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:24 pm

Some initial results on the casino. It might not be quite right since I've been messing up the simulations all day.

Crimbo Party Slot: ~1 crimbux/turn, ~3 crimbux/turn after elves rigged it
The 11 Tables: ~3.7 crimbux/turn by playing like the house, at least ~4+ is doable by playing better (knowing the future would get you ~6)
Change Machine: 1 crimbuck/1000 meat, max 100/day
Last edited by Eleron on Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:15 am, edited 2 times in total.

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stupac2
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Post by stupac2 » Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:29 pm

What's the strategy on "playing better"?

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Post by Kelemvor » Tue Dec 15, 2009 2:15 pm

Either I've gotten pretty bad luck, or I'm playing significantly worse than optimal, as in 40 adventures I've made just 55 CB.

I'd love to know what the optimal strategy is, if you've done the math.

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Post by Eleron » Tue Dec 15, 2009 2:27 pm

I don't know about optimal, but I have a thing that adapts all the time by simulating the future many times from the current state. It takes forever.

Here's a simple table, but it's too simple to help much (about 0.05 crimbux/turn more):

When dealer's card is 2-4: Hit until 9
When dealer's card is 5-A: Hit until 10

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Post by Kelemvor » Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:11 pm

Using the above strategy, I'm at 88 in 50 adventures (1.76/per), betting 11 each time. Somewhat better than the 1.375 I was getting on my own, but nowhere near the 3+ as quoted originally.

Any chance you want to share the Wonderous Simulation Thingy of Crimbux Making?

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Eleron
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Post by Eleron » Tue Dec 15, 2009 5:43 pm

Stand/hit table (this one is based on a bit of simplified assumptions btw):

Code: Select all

     2 3 4 5 A Them
You
  4: H H H H H
  5: H H H H H
  6: H H H H H
  7: H H H H H
  8: H H H H H
  9: S S S S H
 10: S S S S S
 11: S S S S S
A+1: H H H H H
A+2: H H H H H
A+3: H H H H H
A+4: S S S S S
A+5: S S S S S
Basically the same, but a difference between having an ace and not, makes it a bit better.
Last edited by Eleron on Tue Dec 15, 2009 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Serra725 » Tue Dec 15, 2009 5:52 pm

Thank you, Eleron!

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Post by deusnoctum » Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:19 pm

lost posted this handy link in chat: http://hardcoreoxygenation.com/forums/v ... hp?p=90872

Make sure to save it as a .ash file. The strategy it uses looks relatively sound (if you disagree it should be easy to change that logic), and it's a heck of a lot quicker than click-click-clicking.

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stupac2
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Post by stupac2 » Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:25 pm

Does that need any particular mafia version?

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Post by deusnoctum » Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:29 pm

stupac2 wrote:Does that need any particular mafia version?
Not that I'm aware of, but I don't know whether it takes advantage of any recent changes to ASH script handling.

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Post by p4n1q » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:46 pm


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Post by Eleron » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:59 pm

p4n1q wrote:mtfns posted this in /hc: http://94.229.68.253/~mark/eleven.parsed.html
This one's good.

I worked on making an optimal one myself, with identical results.
(Edit: He had a bug that made some of the values wrong, and I my doubling didn't work like the game, both corrected now, so we're in agreement.)

Code: Select all

       2 3 4 5 A
   22: H H H H H
  222: H H H H H
 2222:   S H H H
22223:   S S S S
2222A:   S S S S
 2223: S S S H H
2223A: S S S S S
 2224: S S S S S
2224A: S S S S S
 2225: S S S S S
 222A: H H H H H
222AA: S S S S S
  223: H H H H H
 2233: S S S S S
2233A: S S S S S
 2234: S S S S S
 223A: H S H H H
223AA: S S S S S
  224: S S H H H
 224A: S S S S H
224AA: S S S S S
  225: S S S S S
 225A: S S S S S
225AA: S S S S S
  22A: S S S S H
 22AA: H H H H H
22AAA: S S S S S
   23: D D D H H
  233: S S H H H
 2333: S S S S S
 233A: S S S H H
233AA: S S S S S
  234: S S S S S
 234A: S S S S S
234AA: S S S S S
  235: S S S S S
 235A: S S S S S
  23A: S S S S S
 23AA: H H H H H
23AAA: S S S S S
   24: D D H H H
  244: S S S S S
 244A: S S S S S
  245: S S S S S
  24A: H H H H H
 24AA: H H H H H
24AAA: S S S S S
   25: H H H H H
  25A: H S H H H
 25AA: S S S S H
25AAA: S S S S S
   2A: H H H H H
  2AA: H H H H H
 2AAA: H H H H H
2AAAA: S S S S  
   33: D D D H H
  333: S S S H H
 333A: S S S S S
333AA: S S S S S
  334: S S S S S
 334A: S S S S S
  335: S S S S S
  33A: H H H H H
 33AA: H S H H H
33AAA: S S S S S
   34: H H H H H
  344: S S S S S
  34A: S S H H H
 34AA: S S S H H
34AAA: S S S S S
   35: H H H H H
  35A: S S S S H
 35AA: S S S S S
35AAA: S S S S S
   3A: H H H H H
  3AA: S S S S H
 3AAA: H H H H H
3AAAA: S S S S  
   44: H H H H H
  44A: S S S H S
 44AA: S S S S S
44AAA: S S S S S
   45: S S S H H
  45A: S S S S S
 45AA: S S S S S
   4A: S S S S S
  4AA: S S S S S
 4AAA: H H H H H
4AAAA: S S S S  
   55: S S S S S
  55A: S S S S S
   5A: S S S S S
  5AA: H H H H H
 5AAA: H H H H H
5AAAA: S S S S  
   AA: H H H H H
  AAA: H H H H H
 AAAA: H H H H  
Last edited by Eleron on Wed Dec 16, 2009 8:36 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by p4n1q » Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:41 am

Poochy has made a condensed table, which contains all the same information, but is much easier to look at. It is here: http://kol.coldfront.net/thekolwiki/ind ... 1_Strategy

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Post by Eleron » Wed Dec 16, 2009 8:44 am

(mtfns had a bug during calculations, and our tables actually differed for one position that I didn't notice. Fixed now though, so we have identical choices and expected values for every situation.)

So, yeah, this is optimal :)

Code: Select all

-22: 0.0172067029
-11: 0.3875726384
  0: 0.1737555419
+11: 0.2770130841
+22: 0.0285100037
+44: 0.1159420290

Expected crimbux/turn:  4.1339667975
Here's some simple rules that cover a bit, and a table for the rest:

Code: Select all

Double vs 2/3/4 unless you have 24 vs 4
Hit on 4-7
Stand on 10 unless AA3/A22 vs A
Hit if you have 4 cards and soft ace (instant win)
8/9 are trickier and need more rules / table lookup ;)

Initial hands:
  Double vs 2/3/4 unless you have 24 vs 4
  Stand on 10, or with 45 vs 2/3/4
  Otherwise hit

               2 3 4 5 A
S  AAA   ( 8): H H H H H
   A25   ( 8): H S H H H
   A34   ( 8): S S H H H
   224   ( 8): S S H H H
   233   ( 8): S S H H H
S  AA2   ( 9): H H H H H
   A35   ( 9): S S S S H
   A44   ( 9): S S S H S
   225   ( 9): S S S S S
   234   ( 9): S S S S S
   333   ( 9): S S S H H
  AAA5   ( 8): H H H H H
  AA24   ( 8): H H H H H
  AA33   ( 8): H S H H H
  A223   ( 8): H S H H H
  2222   ( 8):   S H H H
  AA25   ( 9): S S S S H
  AA34   ( 9): S S S H H
  A224   ( 9): S S S S H
  A233   ( 9): S S S H H
  2223   ( 9): S S S H H
Last edited by Eleron on Fri Dec 18, 2009 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by deusnoctum » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:03 am

RoyalTonberry's ASH script for mafia is now based on the optimal strategy:

http://forums.kingdomofloathing.com/vb/ ... stcount=91

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Post by Elayne » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:17 am

Forgive the noob. >.>

So I save it as crimbo11.ash, then run from the scripts menu? Do I need to specify the turns it will be using, or will it use the maximum adventures you have?

I'll have to try this tomorrow.
I used to have a softcore multi. But now, it's just HC4L. Elayne.

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Post by NightBird » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:21 pm

you need to specify bet (1-11) and number of turns
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Post by big_mara » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:22 pm

If you are using Soh Cah's script (from the HCO forums), it will ask you how many turns you want to spend. It's pretty nice. I was making around 4.3 bucks/turn yesterday on a multi over 190 turns.

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Post by Kelemvor » Wed Dec 16, 2009 1:31 pm

I averaged 4.4 over 682 turns (spread over several multis, of course) using SCT's script. Might switch to RT's tomorrow and see how it does.

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Post by tiv » Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:37 pm

My average was 4.1 for 627 turns (1 character) with RT's script.

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Post by Turtle Juice » Fri Dec 18, 2009 10:34 am

I got an average of 6.74 crimbux per adventure for 217 adventures yesterday, I wish I had a lot more adventures!!

Today I only got 2.4 per adv.

Using mafia script.

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Post by p4n1q » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:55 am

p4n1q wrote:Poochy has made a condensed table, which contains all the same information, but is much easier to look at. It is here: http://kol.coldfront.net/thekolwiki/ind ... 1_Strategy
Yeah, this table isn't optimal. Ignore it.

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Post by lostcalpolydude » Sat Dec 19, 2009 2:19 pm

In case people are wondering about improved Slots, it gives 3.07 crimbux/adv, which still isn't as good as 11.
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Post by Eleron » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:14 am

deusnoctum wrote:RoyalTonberry's ASH script for mafia is now based on the optimal strategy:

http://forums.kingdomofloathing.com/vb/ ... stcount=91
I was going to start using this today, but it's still wrong. Meh.

Edit: Double meh. RT won't fix it, so I put up a fixed version at http://www.houeland.com/kol/docs/crimbo11.ash (it's basically the same, just plays optimally and doesn't try to double when it's not allowed, not a big difference. I also set bet size to always be 11).

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